Mid rounds, big dreams: QBs selected later in NFL draft strive for success despite long odds

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) — Carson Beck had his fans and also some detractors during the NFL draft process, which explains why the quarterback fell to the third round before being selected by the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 65 overall pick.

The 24-year-old spent six years in college, had some ups and downs and dealt with a major elbow injury that kept him off the field for months. He might not be viewed as the perfect prospect, but in his mind none of that matters.

All he needed was an opportunity.

“Everybody’s got to run their own race,” Beck said. “It looks different for everyone regardless of the opinions that others have of that race or that journey.”

Beck is part of an intriguing incoming class of quarterbacks that’s out to prove it’s not just Fernando Mendoza and the misfits. Guys like Beck, the Steelers’ Drew Allar and the Jets’ Cade Klubnik face uphill battles to achieve NFL stardom after being selected in the third and fourth rounds.

But the league has a long history of great QBs who weren’t early picks.

The most famous example — of course — is seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, who was selected in the sixth round of the 2000 draft by the New England Patriots and had one of the best careers in the history of the sport. More recently, Dallas’ Dak Prescott (fourth round) and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (seventh round) have been productive starters.

Stories like Prescott’s and Purdy’s are starting to become an anomaly, however.

Only three quarterbacks drafted in the third round or later — Prescott, Purdy and Jacoby Brissett — made at least nine starts last season. That’s down from a high of 17 such quarterbacks in 2001 and 10 in 2017.

Maybe that’s because teams are better at evaluating QB prospects.

Matt Miller, an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, has a different take.

“I’ve had this conversation with agents before — the round you’re drafted in stays with you a long time,” Miller said. “You’re given a lot more opportunity based on that first-round moniker over fifth or sixth round. I wouldn’t say teams are better, I think teams are stubborn about wanting to admit they’re wrong on a quarterback.”

Miller said many recent highly drafted QBs like C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett and Bryce Young have received long runways to become a starter because of the money and draft capital invested in them. Sometimes it works out, but sometimes it doesn’t.

“There’s pressure to stick with those guys,” Miller said.

Mid- to late-round QBs can still make their mark and Miller said college experience is a good indicator of success. Purdy started 46 games over four seasons with Iowa State, while Prescott made nearly 30 starts for Mississippi State against Southeastern Conference competition.

Then each of them caught a big break. Purdy got playing time in 2022 after both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo were injured, and he finished the season with a 5-0 record as the starter. Prescott fell into the starting job in 2016 when both Tony Romo and Kellan Moore got hurt.

But here’s the key: Their stout college resumes helped them take advantage of the opportunity presented.

“You have the experience factor to come in, make plays and perform at a high level,” Miller said. “That’s not to say that experience can cover up a lack of tools — the tools have to be there.”

Miller said Beck’s situation in Arizona is one that has a lot of promise. The Cardinals have two experienced options in Brissett and Gardner Minshew, but both are journeymen who don’t have huge contracts.

First-year coach Mike LaFleur isn’t concerned that Beck — who started 43 games over three seasons for Georgia and Miami — was selected in the third round.

“Part of our job in this building is to say, ‘Hey, take all that away and develop them at the pace that they can develop,’” LaFleur said. “Let’s make sure we have great urgency in the way we coach them. They need to match that urgency back, because the clock starts now for all these guys.

“No one really cares. You’ve got to put the best 53 on the roster and the best 22 out there from a starting standpoint.”

Allar was selected by the Steelers in the third round with the No. 76 overall pick out of Penn State. Pittsburgh is hopeful the physically gifted but raw prospect can blossom under first-year coach Mike McCarthy, who has a long track record of working with talented quarterbacks.

Allar begins his pro career not as a potential franchise savior but instead as a longer-term project. Barring a series of injuries, he will spend his rookie season third or fourth on the depth chart, absorbing as much as he can from McCarthy and four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, who has returned to Pittsburgh on a one-year deal.

“Right now it’s just really focusing on the fundamentals and not really caring about where I am at in terms of depth-chart stuff,” Allar said.

Klubnik, 22, also checks the college experience box after playing in 49 games over the past four seasons at Clemson and throwing for more than 10,000 yards. The New York Jets took him in the fourth round at No. 110 overall.

Klubnik has a chance to compete for the No. 2 job behind Geno Smith, unless the Jets sign a proven veteran for that role. New York’s quarterback room is thin on experience after Smith with Klubnik, Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe.

“He’s a really smart kid. Not kid, but he’s a really smart man,” Jets coach Aaron Glenn said of Klubnik. “I don’t think he’s swimming as much as you probably think he is and that’s a lot because of the way the coaches are actually teaching them.

“But, listen, we’re going to push the envelope with that player and see exactly where he’s at and how he’s going to be able to operate with our offense.”

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AP Pro Football Writers Josh Dubow and Dennis Waszak and AP Sports Writers Will Graves and Dave Skretta contributed to this story.

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