Yen climbs to seven-month high on hawkish BOJ bets 

By Jiaxing Li and Sruthi Shankar

Sept 8 (Reuters) – The Japanese yen climbed to a near seven-month high on Tuesday, as growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week sent bearish traders scurrying for cover, putting pressure on the dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data this week.        

The yen strengthened to as much as 152.89 per dollar, surpassing levels reached during Japan’s July intervention and hitting its strongest since February. The currency, however, pulled back to trade at 154 in London morning trade.

The Japanese currency has now firmed roughly 4% from around 160 yen per dollar early last week. 

Traders and analysts said a slew of factors were now driving a sea change for the currency that is turning away bears. These include bets on a faster pace of Bank of Japan tightening, the potential for Japanese investors to repatriate their funds, the unwinding of carry trades and U.S. political pressure.

“It seems more like it’s a market-driven flow, possibly investors starting to think much more about the BOJ turning more hawkish at the next meeting,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura in London. 

“But it’s going to be quite challenging for the BOJ to hike faster than the market has priced in or to a higher terminal rate. If a weaker yen was at least part of their thinking from an inflation perspective, that’s obviously becoming less of an issue.” 

Traders largely expect the central bank to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the September 17-18 meeting. 

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday Tokyo and Washington remain aligned in their approach to currency markets and will continue close communication to ensure orderly foreign exchange movements.

ECB MEET, U.S. DATA AWAITED

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, was subdued at 98.93, largely due to the euro trading largely flat at $1.1615. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, as the U.S.-Iran war – which is keeping oil prices high and raising inflation – drags on.

Market focus now shifts to U.S. inflation readings this week, the last set of key data releases before the Fed meeting on September 15-16. Traders are pricing a roughly 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month following Friday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. 

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week that inflation dynamics were key to his policy outlook and that he was leaning towards keeping rates steady if price pressures continued to moderate, but that he would support a hike if inflation failed to cool.

Investors were also watching geopolitical tensions in the Gulf and their implications for inflation after Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthis attacked energy facilities and cities in U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, wounding more than 70 people and highlighting the risk of the Iran conflict widening. 

Oil prices hovered near a six-week high, with Brent crude futures firmly above $99 a barrel.      

The  pound climbed to a one-week high before dipping to $1.3525, with investors awaiting comments from a number of Bank of England policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey.

(Reporting by Jiaxing Li and Sruthi Shankar; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Lincoln Feast, Edwina Gibbs, Amanda Cooper and Timothy Heritage)