US Permian basin’s oil output growth to slow in 2025 despite Trump’s plan, executives say

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By Georgina McCartney and Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Growth in oil output from the U.S. Permian basin, the country’s most prolific formation, is expected to slow by at least 25% this year despite President Donald Trump’s vow to maximize production, energy executives forecast on Thursday.

At a conference in Houston, they said production is expected to rise in 2025 by about 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 300,000 bpd from the area spread across Texas and New Mexico. This compares to a 380,000 bpd increase last year.

That forecast aligns with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s projection of a 300,000 bpd rise. Total Permian output hit 6.3 million bpd last year, accounting for about half of total U.S. output.

“Drill, baby, drill is not going to happen,” said Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy Inc on the sidelines of the Argus Global Crude Summit in Houston.

“The tension that we have right now is that the Trump administration said it wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers,” Flowers added.

U.S. refiner Delek’s CEO Avigal Soreq concurred.

Producers are focusing on keeping capital spending under control and achieving higher prices for their oil and gas. They have prioritized returning cash to shareholders after a pricing rout in the last decade hurt profits and share prices.

While the U.S. is already the world’s top oil producer with output of about 13.2 million bpd in 2024, total U.S. production growth has slowed in recent years, climbing only about 280,000 bpd last year.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney and Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Editing Cynthia Osterman)