US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August

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(Reuters) -El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to be favored through the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), the United States’ Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

Chances of ENSO neutral conditions exceed 50% through August-October 2025, it added.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

CONTEXT

The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 million tons due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation, a report issued on May 05 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi showed.

KEY QUOTES

“Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

“The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects.”

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru)