Ukraine’s path to EU accession narrows as war drags on

By Lili Bayer, Anna Magdalena Lubowicka and Kuba Stezycki

OSZCZOW-KOLONIA, Poland, Nov 11 (Reuters) – When Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, Polish farmer Miroslaw Halej wanted to help refugees who flooded across the border near the village where he lives in eastern Poland.

He did so initially by helping distribute food and clothing for them but, as the war ground on, his views began to shift.

His sympathy has given way to resentment that some of the people who arrived from Ukraine appear to be prospering while Poland’s farmers worry about their own future, especially as Kyiv pursues membership of the European Union.

“The mood has definitely changed,” Halej, 63, said as chickens roamed at his farm in Oszczow-Kolonia, a village of about 70 people some 280 km (175 miles) southeast of Warsaw.

Halej, who grows wheat, beets, rapeseed and beans in the border region, has taken part in a series of Polish farmers’ protests over Ukrainian grain imports. 

He voiced concern that Ukraine’s large agricultural sector – which produces at much lower costs than farmers in the EU – could flood Europe with cheap farm produce.

“The biggest worry is definitely that the prices of our products would drop,” he said. “If there were a free market, we wouldn’t stand a chance.”

Joining the EU soon is an important aim for Ukraine as it tries to complete its exit from Moscow’s orbit, but there is scepticism in the wealthy bloc of 450 million people about Kyiv’s prospects of achieving that goal.

Some European leaders have said they hope to welcome Ukraine into the bloc in the next few years.

But in conversations with Reuters, more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU states were privately more cautious, pointing to formidable obstacles that Kyiv and the EU will have to overcome before Ukraine can join.

“You go around and you realise that, in many countries, politicians don’t expect Ukraine to join in 10 years,” said Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank.

But any message that the EU is not serious about Ukraine’s accession could have a demoralising effect on the country “that nobody in Europe wants to see,” said Knaus, an EU accession expert.

RISING OPPOSITION

Even in straightforward cases, it takes years of negotiations and legal reforms for a candidate country to meet the EU’s political, democratic and economic standards.

Kyiv faces additional challenges such as uncertainty about the outcome of the war, a history of deep-rooted corruption and Ukraine’s large size, which complicates the integration process.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said some scepticism in the EU was to be expected but added: “Getting Ukraine inside the European Union is beneficial for the European Union.”

“This is not simply Ukraine asking to get inside. Ukraine has the most capable, battle-tested and combat-ready army on the continent – one million people,” he said.

Hurdles faced by the EU include the rise of populist parties opposed to EU accession for Ukraine in some EU countries. A candidate country’s membership must be approved by all 27 EU states and France would be likely to hold a referendum on Ukraine’s membership bid. 

Only 47% of EU residents say Ukraine should join in the coming years, down from 69% in March 2022, according to a survey published in October by Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German political foundation.

In France and Poland, 57% of those polled opposed Ukrainian membership in the coming years. In Germany, the figure was 59%.

A senior European diplomat who asked not to be named in order to discuss sensitive political matters said Ukraine’s accession was not a realistic prospect in the next few years.

Another said that with multiple national elections scheduled next year, many governments will be too busy to make the case for enlarging the bloc.

The United States is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, so EU membership may be Kyiv’s best hope of claiming a geopolitical victory when the war ends, political analysts say.

The pursuit of EU membership is also an incentive for Kyiv to implement democratic reforms, they say.

Leaders pushing hardest for quick accession, such as those in the Baltics, say Kyiv would make the EU stronger and safer. Ukraine has a large, battle-hardened army with expertise in drone warfare.

Along Poland’s border with Ukraine, some residents say Ukrainian EU membership would boost regional security, but that Europeans should not bear the costs.

“I believe it is in Poland’s interest for Ukraine to join the European Union – but under certain conditions,” said Grzegorz Drewnik, the mayor of Dolhobyczow municipality, which includes Oszczow-Kolonia.

FAR-RIGHT POLITICIANS WARY

The EU has not published any recent estimate of the cost of Ukraine accession, and the sum would depend on the outcome of negotiations on market access and transitional arrangements.

But far-right politicians such as France’s Marine Le Pen, frontrunner for next year’s presidential election, are already highlighting the potential cost.

“If Ukraine joined the European Union, we would be the first losers, doubly so,” Le Pen posted on X, saying France would face “fierce unfair competition” and a cut to its share of EU farm subsidies.

The Alternative for Germany, which leads opinion polls in Europe’s biggest country, submitted a motion to parliament in September urging the government to rule out Ukraine’s EU accession.

Ukraine’s pre-war population of about 40 million would probably make it the fifth or six biggest EU state. Kyiv would acquire big political clout in the EU, as EU decisions are taken by unanimity or by a voting system that gives more weight to larger members.

Under current accession terms, Ukrainians would ultimately be free to move around the EU and work anywhere in it, and Ukraine would be eligible for substantial economic development grants from Brussels.

Such arrangements could be slowed or suspended during a transitional period, and internal EU reforms might be required to take in so big a state, one EU diplomat told Reuters, with some countries signalling opposition to any changes that might weaken their own influence or power in the bloc. 

EU CONSIDERS ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES

Such concerns have prompted several proposals by member states to bring candidate countries closer to the EU before they join and to safeguard EU decision-making after accession.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has ​proposed giving Ukraine a new status of “associate member” to allow Ukrainian officials to take part in EU summits ​and ministerial meetings but not vote.

Ukraine says the idea is unfair because it would leave Kyiv without a voice in the EU.

The European Commission, the EU executive body, has suggested strengthening a policy of gradually integrating candidate countries into ​EU programmes and economic sectors such as energy, transport, digital and defence once they meet criteria for each scheme.

It has also suggested imposing limits on financial support and market access for “sensitive agricultural products” from Ukraine.

In Oszczow-Kolonia, Halej said such measures might prompt him to rethink his opposition to Ukraine’s accession.

“Saying, for instance, ‘You can sell this much of this, and that much of that’ – then maybe it could work,” he said. “But as long as the market is uncontrolled, then no.”

(Reporting by Lili Bayer, Anna Magdalena Lubowicka and Kuba Stezycki; Additional reporting by Andrew Gray, Miranda Murray and Yuliia Dysa; Editing by Andrew Gray, Mike Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)