U.S. conservatives watch nervously as Orban faces tough test in Hungary vote

By Anita Komuves and Andrew R.C. Marshall

BUDAPEST, March 31 (Reuters) – U.S. conservatives have long pointed to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as proof that a Western leader can crack down on immigration, defy global institutions and wage war on “woke” liberalism – and still win elections.

But as Hungary heads toward an April 12 parliamentary election, some of Orban’s most enthusiastic admirers in the U.S., including President Donald Trump, are confronting a once‑unthinkable prospect: after 16 years in power, Europe’s champion of “illiberal democracy” could be voted out of office. 

Defeat for Orban would reverberate well beyond Hungary, casting doubt on the durability of a political system – marked by hardline nationalism and an erosion of democratic checks – that some on the American right have touted as a blueprint for reshaping Western democracy. It would also come as momentum appears to be slowing for some of Europe’s far-right parties, with Trump’s unpopularity increasingly seen as a liability among European voters.

Opinion polls show Orban and his Fidesz party face the toughest electoral challenge since returning to power in 2010. In most independent surveys, they trail the center-right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar. 

Magyar, 45, has toured hundreds of towns and villages, often giving speeches from what has become a symbol of his campaign: a flatbed truck painted in Hungary’s national colors.

While he vows to tackle corruption and democratic backsliding, blaming both on Orban’s long rule, Magyar’s rallies focus on bread‑and‑butter concerns such as low wages, rising food prices and deteriorating public services. Magyar, a lawyer and member of the European Parliament, has drawn strong support from younger voters, with backers attributing his rapid rise to disciplined messaging and slick social media.

Orban, 62, has depicted Magyar as a risky bet who will bow to the European Union and drag the country into the Ukraine war. Orban maintains close ties with Russia and opposes helping Ukraine. Across Budapest, pro-Orban campaign posters reinforce that message, branding Fidesz as “The Safe Choice.” 

Five political analysts said that even high-profile backing from Washington – including Trump’s endorsement and a planned visit by Vice President J.D. Vance on April 7-8 – is unlikely to shift the outcome, as domestic issues such as the cost of living dominate the election.

Trump has praised Orban as “a truly strong and powerful leader,” and conferences in Budapest have drawn conservative figures from across the U.S. to study his political playbook.

Orban’s self-described “illiberal democracy” mirrors key themes of Trump-era America: harsh anti-immigration policies, open disdain for liberal norms, hostility toward global institutions, and attacks on the media, universities and nonprofit groups. He was the first European leader to endorse Trump during his 2016 presidential bid. 

Under the Obama administration, Washington repeatedly warned that Orban’s government was eroding democratic norms, including judicial independence and media and religious freedoms, but that criticism largely faded once Trump began his first term. 

Since then, as Trump’s ties with much of Europe have frayed, Hungary under Orban has moved closer to him, including by joining his “Board of Peace,” an initiative that challenges the United Nations’ traditional role.

Another trait that has won Orban admirers on the American right is his readiness to confront the European Union. Orban has repeatedly defied the bloc, most notably by opposing Ukraine’s bid for membership and maintaining close ties with Russia. His opponent, Magyar, has vowed to pull Hungary away from Moscow and re‑anchor it in the West.

A spokesperson for Orban did not respond to requests for comment. Magyar, in a previous interview with Reuters, said voters must choose between Europe and development, or a continuation of “16 years of decline.”

ENDORSEMENTS BUT NO MONEY

On his Truth Social platform, Trump has credited Orban with helping the U.S. and Hungary reach “new heights of cooperation and spectacular achievement.” Trump counted Orban as a “close partner, respected leader, and a winner for the people of Hungary – a great ally to the United States,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said in an email to Reuters.

But the Trump administration has not given Orban the kind of economic backing extended to another ally, President Javier Milei of Argentina. Last year, the U.S. provided Argentina with a multibillion‑dollar support package to help stabilize its currency and bolster Milei ahead of midterm elections.

After a meeting with Trump at the White House in November, Orban said he had secured an agreement with the U.S. for a “financial shield” to protect Hungary’s economy. But Trump later denied offering Orban any such lifeline. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to Budapest on February 16, made only vague promises of “finding ways to provide assistance” if Hungary’s economy was struggling.

“We’re hitting a ceiling (on) what the Americans are willing to really offer,” said Zsuzsanna Vegh, a Berlin-based political analyst focusing on Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C.

“That may signal a level of uncertainty about whether Orban will really win. Trump might not want to be seen supporting a loser,” she said.

A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. 

The last general election in Hungary in 2022, which Orban won by a landslide, was deemed free but not fair by election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a Vienna-based regional security organization. It said ubiquitous state-funded advertising and media bias gave Fidesz an “undue advantage.” 

Billboards in Budapest remain dominated by Fidesz today. Changes in election law under Orban have also allowed his party to win supermajorities with less than 50% of votes. 

A VANCE VISIT

Vance’s planned visit, days before the vote, highlights Orban’s place in a Trump‑aligned global conservative network, a role underscored in March by two Budapest conferences attended by right‑wing politicians and activists from around the world.

But even some of Orban’s allies doubt the show of support will translate into votes. “Domestic issues will determine voter intentions,” said Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst at Szazadveg, a pro-Orban think tank in Budapest.

At a March 21 gathering of CPAC Hungary – an offshoot of the Conservative Political Action Conference, a prominent annual forum of U.S. conservatives – attendees included Argentina’s Milei, Alice Weidel of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany, and two Republican congressmen, Russ Fulcher of Idaho and Andy Harris of Maryland. The conference was closed to Reuters and other traditional media.  

Anxiety about Hungary’s election surfaced in speeches streamed online. Onstage, the conservative media personality Dave Rubin acknowledged a sense of “trepidation” among delegates. Harris warned of “vandals” seeking to destroy Christian values and urged Hungarians to “throw the vandals out and shut the gate,” adding that “the future of Western, Christian, free civilization depends on it.” 

Harris told Reuters Orban’s leadership “led the way for the victory of many right-of-center leaders in Europe. Of course, that put a political target on him.”

Rubin didn’t reply to a request for comment.

Two days after CPAC Hungary, Orban hosted leaders of at least 10 European far-right parties, including France’s Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders of the Netherlands. Their alliance, Patriots for Europe — founded by Orban and allies in 2024 — is now the third‑largest group in the European Parliament.

Kiszelly, the pro-Orban analyst, said his conservative contacts in the U.S. were unfazed by Orban’s polling troubles, arguing that Trump’s 2024 victory had taught them not to trust surveys. 

He said Orban appeared to be trailing only because of “pro‑opposition pollsters,” pointing instead to polling by McLaughlin & Associates, a U.S. firm known for its work with Trump and other conservative politicians, that showed Orban’s Fidesz leading the rival Tisza party by six points. The firm did not respond to a request for comment. 

Kiszelly said such a margin would allow Fidesz to retain power outright or govern with the far‑right Our Homeland party. “The opposition has no chance,” he said.

Most polls, however, suggest otherwise – and give an edge to a challenger whose appeal cuts into terrain long dominated by Fidesz.

Orban’s rival, Magyar, is hardly a “woke” or left‑wing figure. Campaigning under the slogan “Now or never,” his party espouses strict immigration policies, family values and nationalism — themes long associated with Orban’s rule. His surname means “Hungarian.” 

The strain of a tight contest is showing on the campaign trail. Orban was booed at a recent rally in the northwestern city of Gyor, a rare experience for a leader whose appearances are usually tightly choreographed. 

Visibly rattled, he accused the hecklers of “not standing with Hungarians.”

(Editing by Jason Szep)