TSMC says global chip market to hit $1.5 trillion by 2030 as AI drives growth

By Wen-Yee Lee

HSINCHU, Taiwan, May 14 (Reuters) – TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, expects the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, topping its previous forecast of $1 trillion, according to its presentation materials ahead of a tech symposium on Thursday.

Here are the ​details:

• AI and high-performance computing are expected to account for 55% of the $1.5 trillion market, followed by smartphones with 20%, and automotive applications with 10%, according to TSMC.

• TSMC said it has been expanding capacity at a faster pace in 2025 and 2026 and plans to build nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities in 2026.

• The chipmaker is projected to ramp up capacity for its most advanced 2-nanometer and next generation A16 chips, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70% from 2026 to 2028.

• TSMC said CAGR of capacity for its advanced packaging CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) is forecast at more than 80% from 2022 to 2027. CoWoS is a key chip packaging technology widely used in AI chips including those designed by Nvidia.

• The company said AI accelerator wafer demand is projected to increase 11-fold from 2022 to 2026.

TSMC’S GLOBAL FOOTPRINT

• Arizona: The first fab is already in production. Tool move-in for the second fab is planned for the second half of 2026. Construction of a third fab is underway. Work on a fourth fab and the site’s first advanced packaging facility is expected to begin this year.

• TSMC anticipates a 1.8-fold year-on-year increase in Arizona output by 2026, with yields comparable to those in Taiwan.

• The chipmaker said it completed the purchase of a second large parcel of land in Arizona for future expansion.

• Japan: The first fab is currently in volume production for 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer products. Plans for the second fab have been upgraded to 3-nanometer in response to strong demand.

• Germany: The fab is currently under construction and progressing as scheduled. It plans to provide 28-nanometer and 22-nanometer technologies, followed by 16-nanometer and 12-nanometer technologies.

(Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee; Editing by Kate Mayberry)