Trump’s threats present Chicago’s unpopular mayor with opportunity and risk

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By James Oliphant, Renee Hickman and Heather Schlitz

CHICAGO (Reuters) -President Donald Trump’s threats to send immigration agents and National Guard troops to Chicago could breathe new life into the sputtering political career of Brandon Johnson, the unpopular mayor of a city that does not like to be pushed around.

A federal incursion into Chicago – perhaps only days away – has given Johnson the opportunity to style himself along the lines of California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom. Newsom’s star has risen since he emerged as an outspoken foil of the Republican president, bringing a glimmer of hope to his beleaguered party.

Johnson, whose approval ratings have at times fallen below 10%, has seized the moment to stand up to Trump at every turn, rejecting the president’s depiction of the city as a crime “hellhole.” It is a role that could play well in Chicago.

“There’s a little bit of gangster in every Chicagoan. There’s no way any Chicagoan is going to allow this president to come in and bully them,” said Delmarie Cobb, a local Democratic consultant.

But pushing back against Trump’s purported anti-crime crusade also carries political risks.

With the president vowing to make crime an important issue in the 2026 midterm elections, some political analysts warn that Johnson and other Democrats must do more to convince fearful voters that a federal incursion would just be needless political theater. And simply pointing to favorable trends in crime statistics will not be enough.

“For people who are afraid to walk their dog down a neighborhood street at 10 at night, they don’t care what the stats say,” political analyst Paul Lisnek said.

For months, Trump has been threatening to send immigration agents and National Guard troops to Chicago to combat what he claims is an out-of-control crime problem, much like his unprecedented deployment in Washington, D.C., last month.

“We’re going in,” Trump said last week, without specifying the timing. Trump was speaking after the Labor Day weekend, when gun violence in Chicago claimed 54 victims, including at least seven fatalities.

Despite such headlines, Johnson and his allies have defended the mayor’s record by saying violent crime including murders has dropped during his watch. They contend that the city suffers from an influx of illegal guns from outside its borders.

Statistics present a mixed picture of Chicago’s crime problem. Last year’s homicide rate was higher than that in most other big U.S. cities but was notably lower than in Detroit, Baltimore and several other cities, according to FBI data.

The overall crime rate has decreased for several years. Killings were down 32% in the first six months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, and the number of reported shootings is the lowest in at least 15 years.

Some polls had Johnson’s approval rating below 10% earlier this year, but observers have noticed Johnson’s stock rising a bit since he began sparring with Trump.

On Labor Day, Johnson fronted a rally in downtown Chicago, chanting: “No federal troops!” before a boisterous crowd.

“The only person less popular in Chicago than him is Donald Trump so it makes perfect sense for him to be standing up to Trump on this,” said Christopher Berry, a political scientist at the University of Chicago.

Johnson, a 47-year-old former county commissioner who was elected mayor in 2023, replaced Lori Lightfoot, who was so unpopular that she did not reach a runoff election in her bid for another term.

But Johnson has struggled to find his footing governing the city. Last year, the entire school board resigned. The city council unanimously rejected his plan to raise property taxes to cover budget deficits. Voters also denied his plan to tax real-estate transfers to address homelessness.

Both Lightfoot and Johnson ran on progressive agendas in contrast to Emanuel, a moderate who served two terms but often clashed with the Black community and was viewed as favoring business interests.

“Chicago is a challenge to govern, especially in these very difficult times,” said political analyst Laura Washington.

“Its diversity is a strength, but it means a mayor must manage a slew of different constituencies, ethnicities and political perspectives,” she said.

As the political drama in Chicago unfolds, two other possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidates are making their own calculations.

On the national stage, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has joined Johnson in defying Trump.

But former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, while criticizing Trump’s push as performative, says Democrats need to articulate their own crime-reduction strategy – one that includes more police officers. He said Johnson should advocate for more federal funds for law enforcement as an alternative to sending the Guard.

“Be clear you have an agenda on how you can win this battle on crime,” Emanuel said on the “Politics War Room” podcast last week.

Americans generally trust the Republican Party more than the Democratic Party to fight crime, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows. In a survey conducted in August, 38% of respondents said Republicans had the better approach for handling crime and corruption, compared to 22% who said Democrats were better.

One Chicago Democrat is openly criticizing Johnson for not acknowledging concerns about crime. Alderman Raymond Lopez has argued that Chicago should welcome federal support, including Guard troops and an expanded FBI presence, because Chicago residents fear crime.

“Sadly Illinois Democratic leadership at every level of government believes we have decreased crime ‘enough’ and additional federal help isn’t needed,” Lopez posted on X on Thursday, after the gun violence of the Labor Day weekend.

(Reporting by James Oliphant in Washington and Renee Hickman and Heather Schlitz in Chicago; Editing by Frank McGurty and Edmund Klamann)