Trading Day: Nvidia swings and misses

By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 26 (Reuters) – A heavy selloff in tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower on Thursday after investors’ initial positive reaction to AI chipmaker Nvidia’s results was replaced by doubt and pessimism, while safe-haven assets gold and Treasuries rose.

More on that below. In my column today I look at the blistering rally in emerging market equities this year, led by South Korea’s astonishing 50% surge, and ponder when the pause or correction comes. There’s no way it can continue at this pace, can it?

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Nvidia’s CEO prepares investors for a renewed battlewith Intel, AMD 2. IMF calls for U.S. fiscal consolidation to bring down”too big” current account deficit 3. To win Europe’s embrace, China needs to uncap the yuan:Mike Dolan 4. Rare earth shortages worsen in U.S. aerospace, chipsdespite trade truce, sources say 5. Japan’s Takaichi gets her doves in a row with BOJ boardappointees

Today’s Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Nasdaq -1.3%, S&P 500 -0.5%. Dow and Russell2000 in the green. New highs overnight for Japan, Taiwan, SouthKorea, UK, and MSCI EM and Asia ex-Japan benchmark indices. * SECTORS/SHARES: Seven of S&P 500’s 11 sectors fall, tech-1.8%. Philadelphia semiconductor index -3%, Nvidia -5.5%.Financials +1.3%, Paramount Skydance +10%. * FX: Dollar index ends flat. Sterling biggest G10decliner, most EM FX falls. Big exception is China’s yuan -onshore and offshore CNY highest in nearly three years, onshoreCNY on longest winning streak since 2010. * BONDS: U.S. yields fall 3-4 bps, 7-year auction is ok.30-year U.S. mortgage rates below 6% for first time sinceSeptember 2022. UK 10-yr gilt yield lowest since Dec 2024. * COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil and gold slip a bit, with alleyes on U.S.-Iran talks, Comex copper has 3-week closing high.

Today’s Talking Points

* Tech’s sentiment seesaw in full swing

Nvidia shares spiked 4% in after-hours trade on Wednesday immediately after Q4 results showed a solid sales beat and forecast-busting outlook. But that’s evidently not enough, and shares sank 5.5% on Thursday, the biggest fall since April and wiping $260 billion off the company’s value.

The last 24 hours show how skittish the market is around AI and whether its disruptive force will be for good or ill. More pressing, will AI deliver the returns investors expect from the huge capex underway across the sector? Views on that seem to change from day to day.

* Summer Fed cut hopes fade

As debate swirls around Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s dovish or hawkish tendencies, recent moves in interest rate futures markets bear watching – the next fully-priced quarter percentage point rate cut is being pushed back to September.

Presuming Warsh is confirmed by lawmakers and succeeds Jerome Powell in May as planned, that implies the Fed won’t be easing until his third policy meeting as Chair. With core PCE inflation at 3%, this pause seems reasonable. President Donald Trump, looking to November’s potentially tricky midterm elections, might not be so understanding.

* U.S. mortgage “relief”

Any frustration Trump may feel about sticky interest rates could be offset by more encouraging signals from the housing market – average 30-year mortgage rates are now below 6% for the first time since September 2022.

Psychologically, the break into 5% territory could be significant for would-be homeowners, and if sustained, could help ease the affordability crisis ahead of the midterm elections. That said, borrowing to buy a house is still expensive – some 70% of all existing mortgages are at rates below 5%.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Japan Tokyo CPI inflation (February) * Japan industrial production (January, prelim) * India GDP (Q3) * Germany unemployment (February) * Germany CPI inflation (February) * Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks * Canada GDP (Q4) * U.S. producer price inflation (January) * U.S. Chicago PMI (February)

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)