The Media Line: What If a Missile Hits the Temple Mount? 

What If a Missile Hits the Temple Mount? 

A strike on one of Jerusalem’s holiest and most contested sites could trigger international outrage, conspiracy theories, and a far wider political backlash 

By Maayan Hoffman/The Media Line 

The Temple Mount, home to Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock, has come dangerously close to damage in recent weeks as Iranian ballistic missiles and falling debris have landed in Jerusalem’s Old City, raising fears about what could happen if one of the world’s most sensitive religious sites were struck directly. Revered by Muslims, Jews, and Christians, the compound sits at the center of religious claims, political tensions, and conspiracy theories that could turn a single hit into a global crisis. 

For Jews, the Temple Mount is believed to be the site of the First and Second Temples. For Muslims, it is home to Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock. For Christians, it forms part of the sacred landscape of Jerusalem and is associated with Jesus’ life and teaching. Few places in the world carry so much religious, historical, and political weight in so small a space. 

Today, the mount is administered by the Islamic Waqf, a Muslim religious trust under Jordanian custodianship that oversees the site’s daily management. Although more Jews have visited and, in some cases, prayed on the mount in recent years, the longstanding status quo arrangement has largely remained in place since Israel captured eastern Jerusalem in 1967. Under that framework, the waqf handles religious and administrative affairs, while Israel maintains overall security control. 

Although Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock are especially prominent in Sunni Arab political and religious discourse, the site also carries significance in Shiite Islam. For Iran’s Shiite leadership, Jerusalem has long functioned not only as a religious symbol but also as a key element of the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary identity and anti-Israel ideology, making any strike near the compound especially volatile. 

Several pieces of shrapnel and smaller bomblets have landed in and around the Old City in recent weeks. Last Friday, a strike created a crater in a road and parking lot in the Jewish Quarter, just a few hundred meters from the Western Wall and the Temple Mount. 

Earlier in the war, shrapnel also struck Sultan’s Pool, an ancient reservoir below the Old City walls that once formed part of Jerusalem’s water system and is now used as an open-air concert venue, and there have been additional impacts nearby. 

As the war with Iran continues, analysts are debating whether Tehran is deliberately targeting the Temple Mount or whether the danger to the area reflects the inaccuracy of long-range missile fire, the broad debris field created by interceptions, or both. Last week, Iran reportedly said it had aimed drones at Israel’s National Security Ministry in Jerusalem in retaliation for the recent killings of senior officials. Overnight Tuesday, video showed the Israel Defense Forces intercepting missiles targeting the Holy City. 

Some analysts have told The Media Line that, in many cases, these missiles are essentially kamikaze strikes and that Iran no longer has the capability to guide them accurately because of the extensive damage Israel has inflicted on its launchers and airspace. Others insist that Iran still retains targeting capabilities and is using them. 

What would happen if a missile hit the Temple Mount? This is no longer a theoretical question. 

Hillel Fuld, a veteran high-tech marketing influencer and one of the best-known pro-Israel social media figures, told The Media Line that “everyone would blame the Jews and conspiracy theories would fly.” 

“I go back and forth about whether the Iranian missiles are super targeted or firing in all directions,” Fuld said. “I really don’t know. Any normal, rational person would say there is no way Iran is targeting the Temple Mount. But Iran is so unhinged that I would not put it past them, especially if they were targeting it so the world would turn on Israel.” 

According to many of the more than 100 people who responded this week to a similar question posed by Fuld on X, the world would likely blame Israel and the Jews. 

https://twitter.com/hilzfuld/status/2035991814616887473 

“The world blames Israel,” one respondent wrote. “Riots in the streets worldwide, Jews slaughtered. The truth comes out the next day, and no one cares that it was Iran that caused the destruction because it no longer fits their narrative.” 

Another X follower wrote, “Iran and bot farms scream Israel did it, false flag, and try to stir up [a] march on Jerusalem.” 

Rabbi Tuly Weisz, founder of Israel365, who has worked closely with Christian and religious Zionists on issues related to Jewish sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and the Temple Mount, said that if Iran were to hit Al-Aqsa Mosque, it might even take credit. 

“In some twisted way, they would probably try to prove it as being good for their version of Islam,” Weisz told The Media Line. 

At the same time, Weisz suggested that the global reaction might not last as long as expected. A few weeks ago, when shrapnel struck near the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, there was a limited response from major Christian organizations condemning Iran. One of the only statements came from the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem, an evangelical organization, rather than from the Orthodox Christian institutions that use the site. Instead, the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate complained that Israel had restricted access to the church for security reasons, noting the lack of bomb shelters in the Old City. 

“I feel like everyone would just continue to use it to support their narrative,” Weisz said. 

He added that a country like Saudi Arabia might even “rejoice” at the elimination of the third-holiest site in Islam, as it could strengthen its position as the leading custodian of Islamic holy sites. 

A direct hit on the compound could trigger a chain reaction far beyond Jerusalem, feeding long-running suspicions, inflaming religious passions, and intensifying diplomatic pressure on Israel regardless of who launched the strike. 

Those fears are rooted in more than the current war. The mount’s sensitivity has long fueled conspiracy theories. Since at least the 1920s, during the era of Jerusalem Grand Mufti Hajj Amin al-Husseini, claims have circulated that Jews sought to damage or destroy the Muslim holy sites there to clear space for a Third Temple. 

Similar narratives persist even today. There have been repeated rumors alleging that Israel is excavating what it calls the Kotel Tunnels beneath the compound in a way that may weaken the structure, so that if a missile were to strike, the mosque would collapse and clear the path for rebuilding. This rumor has never been substantiated. 

Claims about Jewish intentions toward the site have also circulated in Western media in recent weeks. American commentator Tucker Carlson has accused Israel, in interviews on his show, of seeking to rebuild the Temple and advance a vision of a “Greater Israel.” 

Although such claims circulate widely online, they are not grounded in official Israeli policy or mainstream religious practice. 

Carlson, in one recent episode, accused Chabad Hasidim of “pushing in a pretty subtle way … for the reconstruction of the Third Temple.” 

In another episode, featuring an interview with Beijing-based educator and international analyst Jiang Xueqin, Carlson allowed discussion of a “worst-case scenario,” which “would include a nuclear strike by one or more actors and the destruction of the Aqsa Mosque complex in Jerusalem, which would spark a religious war.” 

Xueqin went further, accusing various sects of Judaism and Christianity of working for centuries to build the Third Temple and usher in the messianic age. He said the basic components of that vision include “the creation of the state, the nation-state of Israel, which happened in 1948. And then you need to have the building of the Third Temple, which requires the destruction of Al-Aqsa Mosque … which could happen during this war, given what we’ve seen so far.” 

He added, “There’s actually talk among Israelis of using this plan to ignite a war between the Arabs and the Persians. … They also talk about the war of Gog and Magog between Israel and the entire world. Then, the coming of the Jewish Messiah, the creation of the Greater Israel project, the return of all Jews from the Diaspora. … If you just observe geopolitical events, we’re seeing these events converge together today.” 

Jews have prayed for the rebuilding of the Temple for almost 2,000 years, since its destruction in 70 CE by the Romans. But this is not the official policy of the State of Israel, nor is it supported by many modern-day rabbis, some of whom still forbid Jews from praying on the Temple Mount. 

Weisz and Fuld said that members of the Jewish community have been preparing for the return of the Third Temple and are even making the instruments that would be used on the mount. They stressed, though, that these are fringe groups and that the government is unlikely to make any dramatic policy changes, even if damage were to occur on the Temple Mount. 

Recent political responses reinforce that point. Even in August 2024, on the Jewish fast day of Tisha B’Av, which commemorates the destruction of the Temple, when National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir ascended the Temple Mount and suggested that the status quo had changed, the Prime Minister’s Office quickly pushed back. 

“It is the government and the prime minister who determine policy on the Temple Mount,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement. “Israel’s policy on the Temple Mount has not changed; this is how it has been, and this is how it will be.” 

Whatever the intent behind the strikes near Jerusalem, the risk is already clear: A hit on the Temple Mount would not remain a local military incident for long. It would almost certainly become a religious, political, and diplomatic crisis reaching far beyond the battlefield. 

Weisz, though, said he holds a different vision for the mount, one that could emerge if such an attack were to reshape realities on the ground. 

“My dream is for a synagogue, church, and mosque to be built on the Temple Mount like the Abrahamic Family House in the United Arab Emirates,” Weisz told The Media Line, referencing the biblical verse in Isaiah 56:7, which says, “for my house shall be called a house of prayer for all people.” 

He added, “If the territory became available, that would be a beautiful way to end this for Israel and the region.”