The Media Line: ‘The Risk Is Very High’: Expert Says IS-KP Could Recruit From Forced Returnees 

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‘The Risk Is Very High’: Expert Says IS-KP Could Recruit From Forced Returnees 

Former UN monitor Heinz Jacob Schindler cautions that large-scale deportations may offer IS-KP new opportunities to grow 

By Arshad Mehmood / The Media Line 

[ISLAMABAD] Multiple reports confirm a sharp surge in Afghans being forcibly expelled from Pakistan and Iran — a mass return that has alarmed diplomats and security officials. 

They warn that Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP), already entrenched in eastern Afghanistan and notorious for brutal attacks, is poised to exploit the upheaval. 

The armed group could rapidly expand its ranks by recruiting from among disoriented and vulnerable deportees, a scenario that threatens not only the Taliban’s fragile grip on power but the security of the entire region. 

Since January 2025, Afghanistan has been overwhelmed by the forced return of millions of its citizens, including families uprooted after decades in exile and young people setting foot in their homeland for the first time. 

According to United Nations (UN) reports, at least 1.2 million deportations this year have pushed the country’s fragile infrastructure to the brink, straining already scarce resources. 

Analysts warn that the sudden influx deepens the humanitarian crisis and risks fueling insurgency, as extremist groups like IS-KP exploit returnees’ vulnerability. 

The International Committee of the Red Cross has warned that as many as 1 million more Afghans could be expelled from Iran before the end of 2025, which could create a looming humanitarian and security crisis with grave regional consequences. 

Returnees are arriving in a nation already devastated by economic collapse, where nearly 70% of the population was living in poverty even before the most recent influx. 

Many, after decades abroad, come back with no resources, housing or employment prospects. 

With little reintegration support, desperation is driving young men toward IS-KP, which exploits joblessness by offering pay, bonuses and a sense of purpose. 

Overcrowded transit centers have become prime recruiting grounds, where members of the group prey on the hungry and indebted. 

What began as a humanitarian tragedy has twisted into a grave security threat, with poverty serving as IS-KP’s most effective recruiter. 

The group, entrenched in eastern Afghanistan, continues to stage attacks and poses a growing threat to Taliban rule and regional stability. 

Yet Zabihullah Mujahid, the Afghan Taliban’s chief spokesperson, told The Media Line, “There is no evidence that IS-KP is recruiting among returnee youth or that the group has the strength to hijack resettlement efforts.” 

Mujahid dismissed the reports as baseless, claiming they are deliberate attempts by certain individuals to encourage IS-KP to exploit poverty and unemployment and to mislead returnees, especially young people. 

He claimed that, in reality, most Afghans coming back from Pakistan and Iran are skilled and fully capable of providing for their families. 

Diplomatic and security officials warn that mass deportations from Pakistan and Iran could further swell their ranks. 

In July 2025, the United Nations warned of a “permissive environment for multiple terrorist groups,” cautioning that such conditions posed a serious threat to the security of Central Asia and beyond. 

The UN further stated that the greatest danger comes from IS-KP, which has around 2,000 fighters and, in recent years, has carried out deadly attacks in Russia, Iran and Pakistan, showing the group’s capability across borders. 

Heinz Jacob Schindler, a former coordinator of a UN committee monitoring armed groups, told AFP on Thursday, “The risk is very high that IS-KP will see these newly returned Afghan citizens as an opportunity for recruitment.” 

According to Schindler, “Since August 2021, the group has continued to recruit not only disgruntled Taliban members but also Afghans who feel excluded from the new government.” 

“Every returnee deserves safety and dignity. But without urgent support, we risk seeing families slide deeper into poverty and despair,” said Indrika Ratwatte, the UN’s deputy special representative and humanitarian coordinator in Afghanistan. 

Ahmad Jalal Naseri, a clinical psychiatrist who recently returned to Kabul from Islamabad, told The Media Line that when families are helpless and children suffer from hunger and illness, their priority becomes survival. “In such circumstances, whether it is IS-KP or another group, desperate individuals are drawn in, seeking shelter and basic needs rather than ideology,” he said. 

The Media Line spoke with seasoned experts to shed light on growing concerns about the impact of the Afghan deportation and its related issues. 

Retired Maj. Gen. Raza Muhammad, an Islamabad-based former ambassador and seasoned defense and security analyst, told The Media Line that “the return of Afghans will inevitably create economic and social pressures on Afghan society and the interim government.” 

He cautioned that “viewing them as a significant recruitment pool for terrorist groups may be an exaggeration,” noting that those inclined to join extremist outfits were already engaged in such activities. 

According to Muhammad, “IS-KP may try to exploit the crisis to expand its recruitment base, but this is not a certainty.” 

Muhammad emphasized that the primary challenge facing Afghanistan is economic, urging the international community to help the country become self-sufficient through sustainable economic activity. 

He added that the Taliban’s broken commitments, use of their territory by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and IS-KP, and continued denial of women’s rights and political inclusion prevent Afghanistan from acting as a responsible member of the international community. 

J.D. Maddox, a former CIA official, counterterrorism expert, and professor at Tulane University and George Mason University, told The Media Line that “it’s unfair to assume that all 2.5 million Afghan returnees are somehow susceptible to recruitment by IS-KP.” 

Maddox noted that “the reality is far more complex, with only a few returnees potentially vulnerable to recruitment for nonideological reasons, and an even smaller fraction exposed to ideological appeal.”  

“IS-KP probably does not represent a hopeful alternative to the Taliban for the returnees,” he stressed. 

He further pointed out that “many Americans mistakenly assume IS-KP’s sole focus is the United States, while in fact much of the group’s recent violence has been closer to home, including in Iran.” 

Maddox explained that the returnees’ familiarity and access to regional targets in Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia could make those locations more attractive for IS-KP operations, should the group manage to recruit among them. 

Looking ahead, Maddox noted that “the intensifying violence between IS-KP and the Taliban might create an ironic opening for cooperation between Washington and Kabul’s rulers.”  

“The Taliban would likely need support to manage IS-KP,” he added. 

Najib Azad, political analyst, lecturer at the University of Wisconsin and former spokesperson for ex-President Ashraf Ghani, told The Media Line that “mass deportations will sharply increase poverty, unemployment and social dislocation in Afghanistan. Such conditions create the vulnerabilities extremist groups exploit for recruitment,” he noted. 

Azad underlined that many returnees are young Afghans raised in exile who may struggle under Taliban rule. “This alienation provides fertile ground for IS-KP’s propaganda and recruitment networks. Forced deportations not only increase militant infiltration but also expand the pool of disillusioned Afghans susceptible to radicalization,” he added. 

He emphasized that recruitment among returnees could strengthen IS-KP as a regional threat, with serious implications for US, European and Middle Eastern security. 

Azad warned that the international community must treat deportations not only as a humanitarian crisis but also as a strategic security concern. “Without coordinated aid, diplomacy and counter-extremism measures, IS-KP could emerge stronger and more resilient,” he said. 

Ali Maisam Nazary, head of foreign relations for the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, told The Media Line that “there are serious concerns that IS-KP may lure former government employees, particularly security personnel, who were targeted by the Taliban from day one. Many fled abroad to save their lives but, after being forcibly returned, some may now join IS-KP to protect themselves and their families.” 

Nazary explained that “IS-KP offers survival in exchange for recruitment and has also exploited forced removals from Iran by using its anti-Shia narrative to attract desperate, mistreated refugees.” 

He warned that “these dynamics could fuel IS-KP’s expansion and further destabilize the region. With no economic opportunities inside Afghanistan, deportees face a grim choice: join militant groups or attempt to flee the country once again.” At the root of the crisis, Nazary stressed, lies the Taliban’s continued reign of tyranny. 

Lucas Webber, a research fellow at the Soufan Center, told The Media Line that IS-KP could exploit forcibly returned Afghans by capitalizing on their vulnerabilities, noting that many face poverty, scarce job opportunities and limited government support, which leaves them susceptible to the group’s financial incentives. 

He noted that the trauma of forced repatriation, coupled with resentment, disillusionment and the challenges of reintegration, further heightens the risk. 

IS-KP, Webber cautioned, may exploit these grievances through targeted propaganda and recruitment, presenting itself as a source of stability, belonging and purpose. Such dynamics, he stressed, could strengthen IS-KP’s narrative, expand its ranks and fuel regional instability while posing grave security threats.