The Media Line: Risk of Wider Escalation If Aleppo Clashes Not Contained 

Risk of Wider Escalation If Aleppo Clashes Not Contained 

Syrian activist Kinana Al-Kurdi tells TML that the violence “is not an isolated security incident, but rather a reflection of a deeper political crisis related to the reshaping of power and influence in Syria” 

By Rizik Alabi/The Media Line 

[ALEPPO] The recent escalation of violence in Aleppo in the last 24 hours represents a new test of the fragile security and political agreements between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Civilian casualties in the conflict highlight the urgent need to return to dialogue, implement the agreement, and ensure the safety of the civilian population. Without clear political solutions, any settlement will remain temporary and prone to collapse, with potential humanitarian and security repercussions at the local and regional levels. 

In addition, Damascus has suspended all communication channels with the SDF and representatives of the Autonomous Administration.  

Violent conflict has raised widespread fears of a broader security slide in the north of the country, as well as questions about the stability of the agreement concluded between the two sides in March 2025. 

Dozens of civilians were forced to temporarily leave their homes amid shelling and gunfire in the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsood and Achrafieh, amid partial outages of electricity and water, and disruptions to some basic services. 

Local residents said that the sounds of shelling and drones continued for hours, prompting entire families to shelter inside buildings or flee to safer areas. Medical sources confirmed to The Media Line that they had received civilian casualties, including women and children, mainly resulting from shrapnel, at a time when health facilities are suffering from increasing pressure and shortages of some basic supplies. 

Local and international humanitarian teams expressed concern over a potential wave of internal displacement in a city that has not yet recovered from the effects of the prolonged war, exacerbating the housing and health crises. Some schools and hospitals experienced temporary service suspensions, while residents attempted to organize temporary centers to shelter displaced families. 

Mental health specialists warned that renewed violence could aggravate existing psychological trauma among children, women, and the elderly, noting that past experience in Aleppo shows the mental-health effects of conflict can linger for years after the fighting stops. 

The confrontations were concentrated in the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh, and their surroundings, where medium and heavy weapons were used in addition to drones. Field sources reported deaths and injuries on both sides and among civilians, with no official final toll released so far. 

Local reports also indicated the temporary suspension of some service activities and the implementation of tightened security measures around the affected areas, amid fears of an expansion of the clashes within the city. 

Aleppo’s infrastructure has also come under significant strain; power and water outages have increased the difficulty of daily life, while some vital roads were temporarily closed to facilitate troop movements, affecting civilian mobility and access to medical services. 

A security source in the Syrian government told The Media Line that “government forces were subjected to direct attacks by groups affiliated with the SDF,” considering that what occurred “constitutes a clear breach of previous security understandings.” He stressed that the army “will deal firmly with any threat that targets security and stability or endangers civilians.” 

In contrast, a source in the SDF leadership told The Media Line that government forces “initiated the escalation by shelling residential neighborhoods,” holding Damascus fully responsible for the death of civilians. He added that “the SDF reserves the right to defend its areas and residents,” calling for a return to dialogue and the implementation of the agreed-upon political understandings. 

Local and international observers noted that both sides often intensify their media rhetoric to shore up their positions before resuming talks, and that this heightened discourse reflects deep mistrust and ongoing divisions on the ground. 

The escalation comes in the context of stalled implementation of the March 2025 agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF, which requires the integration of Kurdish forces into Syrian state institutions and the reorganization of security and administrative issues in areas under its control. 

Political activist Firas Ali told The Media Line that weak trust between the two sides, along with disputes over the future of security and administrative influence, has contributed to the agreement’s fragility and made it vulnerable to collapse at the first field confrontation. The agreement faced significant challenges at the outset, including a lack of clarity on the legal framework for the handover of border areas, differing views on the political representation of the SDF, and the influence of regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and the United States, which seek to preserve their interests in northern Syria. 

Syrian activist Kinana Al-Kurdi told The Media Line that “what is happening in Aleppo is not an isolated security incident, but rather a reflection of a deeper political crisis related to the reshaping of power and influence in Syria.” She added, “Any security settlement that is not based on a clear political consensus will remain temporary and prone to explosion.” 

Al-Kurdi says the escalation “reveals the limits of the effectiveness of international mediation,” explaining that “the Syrian government seeks to restore full control, while the SDF attempts to preserve its local gains, making confrontation likely in the absence of clear guarantees for both sides.” 

 

 

Other experts pointed out that the recent violence may represent a new test of the balance of power in northern Syria, as any expansion of the conflict could open the door to direct intervention by regional actors and redraw the de facto boundaries of military and political influence in the region. Analysts also warn that continued clashes will further complicate any future political process, including arrangements for local elections and joint local authorities in areas under SDF control. 

As clashes continue, observers warn that failure to contain the tension could lead to a wider escalation in northern Syria, with accompanying security and humanitarian repercussions. A potential wave of displacement could include new areas beyond Aleppo, at a time when the city is still suffering from the effects of the long war. 

A looming humanitarian crisis is a chief concern, as civilians face compounded difficulties in securing shelter, food, and health services. Psychological and social crises among children, women, and the elderly are likely to worsen, especially as the conflict continues without prospects for a sustainable political solution.