The Media Line: Researcher Tells TML ‘Military Control Alone Is Not Enough To Ensure Stability’ in Eastern Aleppo

Researcher Tells TML ‘Military Control Alone Is Not Enough To Ensure Stability’ in Eastern Aleppo as Syrian Army Replaces SDF 

Middle East researcher Mazen al-Khalil told The Media Line that “the withdrawal of thousands of fighters without a clear political agreement raises questions about the area’s future”  

By Rizik Alabi/The Media Line 

[DAMASCUS] In a significant military and political development, the Syrian army regained control of the towns of Dayr Hafer and Maskanah in eastern Aleppo province, marking a notable shift in how the conflict is being managed in an area that for years has been one of the most sensitive points of contact between the Syrian state and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

The move did not result from a major battle or direct military confrontation. Instead, it followed an announcement by SDF commander Mazloum Abdi that his forces would withdraw from the areas, a step that was then formally welcomed by the Syrian Ministry of Defense. This sequence gave the development an organized political dimension, extending beyond a purely military event. 

According to estimates from cross-checked military and media sources cited by The Media Line, between 2,500 and 3,000 SDF fighters withdrew from Dayr Hafer, Maskanah, and the surrounding areas. The forces were spread across military units, guard posts, and logistical headquarters stationed in the towns and nearby villages. 

The withdrawal included light and medium vehicles, as well as the dismantling of several embankments and military positions. The forces were redeployed to areas east of the Euphrates, where the main SDF presence is concentrated. While these figures are estimates, they reflect the scale of the SDF’s military presence in eastern Aleppo province and the significance of the decision in terms of its impact on the local balance of power. 

Mazloum Abdi’s announcement did not come in a vacuum but followed a buildup of pressures. For years, the eastern Aleppo countryside has remained an unstable contact zone, marked by temporary understandings and intermittent tensions between the two sides. 

As discussions in recent months increasingly focused on reshaping influence in northern Syria, it became clear that the SDF’s presence in isolated pockets west of the Euphrates had become a military and political burden. This was especially the case given the difficulty of maintaining secure supply lines and the risk of sliding into direct confrontation with the Syrian army, a scenario that does not serve the SDF’s interests at this stage. 

 

For its part, Damascus viewed the withdrawal as a strategic opportunity. The statement issued by the Syrian Ministry of Defense was not merely a reaction but reflected prior field readiness for rapid deployment. 

According to field data obtained by The Media Line, government forces deployed approximately 1,500 to 2,000 soldiers to the area immediately after the withdrawal began, supported by engineering units tasked with securing roads and clearing mines and other remnants of war. The rapid deployment was intended to prevent a security vacuum and to send a clear message that the state can fill vacated areas without delay. 

Dayr Hafer and Maskanah were under Syrian government control before 2014, before falling to the Islamic State (IS) during the height of its expansion in northern and eastern Syria. 

In 2017, government forces regained Maskanah after fierce fighting, but control later passed to the Syrian Democratic Forces under complex field arrangements that followed the retreat of IS and the advance of multiple forces in the area. Since then, the SDF’s military presence there has remained the subject of debate, as the towns lie outside the group’s contiguous areas of control east of the Euphrates. 

This historical legacy has turned the eastern Aleppo countryside into a symbolic arena in the struggle over sovereignty. For Damascus, regaining control of Dayr Hafer and Maskanah represents the continuation of a process begun years ago to reclaim territories that slipped from its control at various stages of the war. For the SDF, the withdrawal reflects a pragmatic reassessment of its expansion west of the Euphrates and a renewed focus on areas viewed as strategically more important. 

Political analyst Dr. Samer al-Abdallah told The Media Line that “the withdrawal and the Syrian army’s control is a positive step serving the stability of the area,” considering that “avoiding battle spared civilians new scenarios of displacement and destruction, and opened the door for the return of state institutions with their services and administrative infrastructure.”  

He added that “the numbers related to the withdrawing forces show that the decision was not symbolic, but involved real military weight, reflecting the seriousness of the step.” 

In contrast, researcher Mazen al-Khalil told The Media Line that “the withdrawal of thousands of fighters without a clear political agreement raises questions about the area’s future.” He pointed out that “Syria’s historical experience shows that military control alone is not enough to ensure stability, especially in areas with complex social structures.” Al-Khalil believes that “the absence of an agreed-upon political framework could make this control a transitional phase susceptible to instability.” 

However, researcher Nader al-Salloum told The Media Line that “what happened reflects a temporary balance imposed by circumstances more than a permanent solution.” He indicated that “the numbers related to deployed and withdrawing forces are important for understanding the scale of the shift, but they do not alone answer the question of the future.”  

He added that “the success of this step will be measured by the state’s ability to manage the area economically and service-wise, and by the other parties’ ability to adapt to the new reality.” 

Control of Dayr Hafer and Maskanah appears to be more than an isolated event; it marks a milestone in the longer process of reshaping influence in Syria. Between the withdrawal announcement, the official welcome, and the rapid military deployment, security, political, and historical factors intersect, reflecting a shift from open confrontation toward more complex management of territory and influence. 

In conclusion, these developments appear to represent a new test for all parties. The Syrian state is seeking to consolidate its control and translate it into tangible stability, while the SDF aims to preserve a negotiating position that allows it to realign its priorities. Caught between them, civilians are waiting to see whether these shifts will usher in a calmer phase or simply mark another chapter in an unresolved conflict.