The Media Line: Poll Shows Modest Gains for Netanyahu, but Coalition Still Lacks Majority 

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Poll Shows Modest Gains for Netanyahu, but Coalition Still Lacks Majority 

By The Media Line Staff 

A new poll released Wednesday by Israel’s Channel 12 News shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party gaining support following the ceasefire with Iran, but still falling short of forming a governing majority. 

The survey, conducted after the 12-day conflict ended on Tuesday, projects Likud winning 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, up four from its prewar position. Despite the gains, the broader pro-Netanyahu bloc would reach only 49 seats, falling short of the 61 required to form a coalition government. 

The poll suggests that Likud’s rise came mostly at the expense of its current coalition partners. Jewish opposition parties were projected to secure a combined 61 seats, while the two Arab-majority factions, which typically remain outside governing coalitions, were forecast to receive 10 seats. 

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s new party showed a strong performance, climbing to 24 seats and positioning him as a leading contender. The left-wing Democrats were projected at 12 seats, while centrist and religious parties including Yesh Atid, Shas, and Yisrael Beitenu were each forecast to receive nine seats. 

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party failed to cross the electoral threshold, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit was projected to win six seats. 

Although Israel’s military campaign against Iran received support among right-wing voters, Netanyahu has not regained a clear path to reelection. Sources close to the prime minister said he is considering early elections but remains cautious due to coalition instability and ongoing domestic issues.