The Media Line: Lebanese Fear Arrival Of 29,000 Alawite Syrians May Exacerbate Local Tensions 

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Lebanese Fear Arrival Of 29,000 Alawite Syrians May Exacerbate Local Tensions 

Fewer Syrian refugees in Lebanon have returned to Syria than many Lebanese expected, and thousands more Syrians have arrived fleeing anti-Alawite violence 

By Taylor Thomas/The Media Line 

When Syrian leader Bashar Assad fell from power last December, many in Lebanon thought it would lead many of Lebanon’s 1.5 million Syrian refugees to return home. Reality hasn’t played out that way. “The line out of Syria in the Masnaa border was packed, while the one out of Lebanon stayed deserted,” one Lebanese resident told The Media Line of the days following Assad’s fall. 

This balance has slightly changed over the past four months, but the road back to Syria through the main border crossing hasn’t gotten crowded. Only around 300,000 Syrians have returned to their home country from all neighboring states since December 2024, according to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) figures. 

Meanwhile, as some Syrians trickle out, others continue to arrive in Lebanon. This was especially true last month, when the worst bloodshed in Syria since the ouster of Assad sparked the exile of thousands of Alawites toward Lebanon. 

Alawites, a subset of Shiites, make up about 10% of Syria’s population. Assad and his father, Hafez Assad, were Alawites, and violence against the Alawite community broke out after Assad’s ouster. 

According to UNHCR, nearly 30,000 individuals have fled Syria for Lebanon since the outbreak of anti-Alawite violence. That number amounts to around 6,200 Syrian families and 365 Lebanese families. 

“Newly arrived refugees are now across 30 distinct locations, predominantly in Akkar,” the UNHCR source told The Media Line. 

Overall, about 89,400 people, including 20,000 repatriated Lebanese, have come to Lebanon from Syria since December 2024, according to the Lebanese Disaster Risk Management Unit. 

The UNHCR source said that families are continuing to arrive through “unofficial crossing points, having fled under duress from Syria.” Many of the refugees reportedly fled without personal documents and used their savings to afford the journey. 

“Many report to have directly witnessed friends and family members being killed,” the source said. 

The harrowing experiences in Syria have led these newly arrived refugees to reach Lebanon in dire circumstances, with the UNHCR source noting that many are facing trauma and flare-ups of underlying health conditions. 

Lebanese municipalities have opened a total of 25 shelters across religious institutions, municipal halls, and disused buildings, but only around 9% are making use of those resources. Many of the refugees are hosted by local communities, relatives, and friends. 

Those fleeing Syria are arriving in a country that has just emerged from war and that has been suffering an economic crisis for more than five years. Municipal authorities in Lebanon find themselves overwhelmed. 

Hosting 1.5 million Syrians hasn’t been easy for Lebanon, which has a population of just 5.8 million. The situation became even more challenging when the financial crisis in Lebanon started. 

Now, many in the cedars’ country fear that the newly arrived will cause social tensions. The northern areas where they are staying are among the poorest regions in the country, and resources there are already scarce. 

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam spent time in the northern city of Tripoli a few weeks ago in a visit he said was meant to “stress the government’s keenness on sustainable security in Tripoli and on protecting its sons.” 

“We are committed to sustainable security stability in the city, and we will not be lenient with anyone who violates security, and they will be referred to the relevant security agencies,” Salam said. 

Lebanon has its own Alawite community, with approximately 100,000 to 120,000 members. They have lived in the country since at least the 16th century. 

The Lebanese Alawite minority has historically been represented by Hezbollah, but that representation has been weakened, especially since the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel in September 2024. 

Most of Lebanon’s Alawites live in the Jabal Mohsen neighborhood in Tripoli. Last month, the Lebanese military deployed a unit along Syria Street, which separates Jabal Mohsen from the mainly Sunni neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbaneh, after tensions escalated when a minor was stabbed. The attacker, initially misidentified as a Syrian national, was later confirmed to be from Jabal Mohsen. 

This area has been the site of recurring conflict in Lebanese history from 1976 through 2015. Residents of the two neighborhoods became rivals during the Lebanese civil war and frequently engaged in violence. They were divided along sectarian lines and by their stance on the Alawite-led Syrian government, leading to violence flaring up during the Syrian civil war spillover in Lebanon a decade ago. 

Bouts of violence between the neighborhoods have been rare in recent years, but the walls of Tripolitan neighbors are still scarred by bullet wounds. With the memory of violence still fresh, many in Lebanon are holding their breath, waiting to see if these new arrivals will exacerbate intra-Lebanese social tensions.