The Media Line: Iraqi Militias May Disarm Over US-Israel Threats; ’30 Million Light Arms’ Abound 

Iraqi Militias May Disarm Over US-Israel Threats; ’30 Million Light Arms’ Abound 

With 90% of Iranian-backed groups agreeing to surrender weapons and a powerful Shiite clerical push behind them, experts warn that secret stockpiles, divided loyalties, and political bargaining could undermine the process  

Hudhaifa Ebrahim/The Media Line Staff  

Following the announcement by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias of their readiness to surrender their weapons, Iraq faces a critical test: can the state truly enforce a monopoly on arms, or is this merely a reorganization of these militias within official frameworks?   

For the first time, armed factions have publicly agreed to the principle of the state’s monopoly on weapons, according to statements issued by prominent leaders. Roughly 90% of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias signaled their willingness to comply, while the al-Nujaba Movement and Iraqi Hezbollah declared they would not disarm until “the last occupier leaves Arab lands.”  

Hamid al-Maliki, a journalist close to the ruling coalition in Iraq—a group of Iranian-backed Shiite parties—told The Media Line, “There is a move to form a high-level coordination committee with broad powers to oversee the implementation of the weapons disarmament process, including medium and heavy weapons and drones, without exception.”  

Al-Maliki noted that the highest Shiite religious authority in Iraq had called for compliance with the demands to disarm the militias and confine weapons to the state, and that therefore no entity could violate those orders.  

“No one is exempt from these instructions. Even factions that refuse will also have their weapons surrendered, whether by force or through negotiation. No weapons will remain outside the control of the state,” he added.  

Dr. Suad al-Qaisi, an Iraqi political researcher, told The Media Line, “This sudden agreement by the Iraqi militias to surrender their weapons came as a result of fears of an Israeli-American strike targeting these militias, and that is why they proceeded to hand over their weapons.”  

She explained that these moves also stemmed from the arrival in Iraq of Colonel Stephanie Bagley, the new director of the US Office of Security Cooperation, whose funding would be contingent upon fulfilling three conditions stipulated in the US National Defense Authorization Act.   

Al-Qaisi added that the US Congress had passed the budget on December 11, 2025, with new restrictions on funding security cooperation with Iraqi authorities — unless Baghdad could reduce the operational capabilities of Iranian-backed armed groups not integrated into the Iraqi security forces through a publicly verifiable disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration process.  

“The Iraqi government has received a clear warning: either disarm the armed militias or end them by force, whether through a military strike or other military solutions to disarm the militias,” she said.  

Previous disarmament attempts in Iraq have not all been successful. The Mahdi Army militia was disarmed in October 2004, but its fighters subsequently began rearming, splitting into two groups: Saraya al-Salam (Peace Brigades) and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (League of the Righteous), which also acquired more powerful, aggressive weapons.  

In 2010, an attempt was made to disarm the Sunni Awakening Councils, local forces previously formed to combat al-Qaida. However, these councils also received weapons later, remaining loyal to their leaders, and the state did not benefit from them.  

Over the past few years, many fighters from various militias have been integrated into the security forces. However, recent events have shown that their loyalty remains with their original commanders, as they have fought alongside them in armed clashes that have erupted between Shiite militias.  

In mid-2022, several clashes took place between Shiite militias in various areas of Baghdad and other Iraqi provinces. It was observed that a number of Iraqi security forces personnel joined the ranks of the militia fighters, even though they were deployed to resolve the conflict, not to fight on behalf of one side or the other.  

Ali al-Khazali, a leader in Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, told The Media Line that it was possible to form a Ministry of the Popular Mobilization Forces, similar to the Ministry of Defense, given that the Popular Mobilization Forces were a large and proven force. He said that, in this way, weapons would truly be under state control and everyone would be under the command of the Iraqi prime minister, but without harming the fighters.  

“We follow the orders of the religious authorities, and therefore, when they said there is no longer any need for weapons outside the control of the state, we will obey those orders,” he said.  

According to semi-official statistics, Iraq has at least 67 militias, most of which are affiliated with the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The number of these militias is estimated at 39, while more than 18 follow the Iraqi Shiite religious authority, Ali al-Sistani, and 10 follow other religious authorities, such as Muqtada al-Sadr.  

According to official Iraqi statistics, the number of fighters in the Popular Mobilization Forces is estimated at more than 150,000, all of whom belong to Shiite militias, while unofficial sources indicate that their numbers reach 250,000.  

There are no precise statistics on the number of weapons in Iraq. However, the Iraqi Ministry of Interior indicated, in a statement issued in June 2024, that the number of weapons outside state control is estimated at 15 million pieces.  

Khaled al-Eidani, a former Iraqi army officer, told The Media Line, “There are at least 30 million light weapons outside the control of the state, while the heavy weapons possessed by militias number no less than 200,000 pieces, ranging from drones and explosives to other weapons in their possession.”  

He explained that there are several challenges to collecting these weapons, including the lack of accurate figures on their quantity or even their locations. He said that the weapons handover could be merely symbolic, with these militias then integrated into the security forces, but their loyalty would remain with their actual leaders.  

“There are also concerns that the weapons will be handed over only partially, with the remainder hidden in secret caches or other locations, only to surface when needed. Therefore, this step must be undertaken with genuine intent, not just as a formality,” he said.  

“There are numerous types of anti-aircraft weapons, explosives, and TNT whose quantities are unknown. There are also rocket launchers, armored vehicles, and hundreds of other types of weapons and logistical equipment used by the fighters,” he noted.  

Regarding the locations where these weapons are stored, Al-Eidani said that there were certainly weapons in the Jurf al-Sakhr area, under the direct supervision of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. He added that there were also weapons in the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces, that there were also military bases belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces, and that there were warehouses that the state did not know about, saying that the matter was “very big.”  

Khaled al-Jubouri, a colonel in the former Iraqi army, told The Media Line, “I don’t know how the weapons handover, the most important step, will be guaranteed. The weapons handover must not be merely symbolic.”  

He said that, from what they had seen and experienced, there were thousands of military vehicles, hundreds of rocket launchers, and an unknown number of drones, some of which might be carrying explosives, and that there were also command centers that had been built over the past 23 years.  

“All these challenges confront the step of restricting weapons to the state. We are not just talking about rifles or pistols; we are talking about an entire weapons system that has been built up over years. It constitutes a large army, and it must be dismantled. This step may take many years,” he added.  

An informed source within the Iraqi Prime Minister’s office told The Media Line, “The current plan is to hand over every weapon to its designated recipient. Drones are being delivered to the Iraqi Air Force, light weapons to the Ministry of Interior, and vehicles and heavy weapons to the Iraqi Ministry of Defense.”  

The source also stated, “Attempts are underway to inventory the number and types of weapons, in cooperation with armed factions, as a serious step towards consolidating weapons under state control.”  

Ali al-Nasser, an Iraqi political analyst, told The Media Line, “The Shiite militias will certainly hand over their weapons. They want to preserve their gains and the money they have accumulated over the years.”  

Al-Nasser said the matter was serious but that negotiations were underway to secure further gains in the upcoming Iraqi government, which was being formed at the time. He said that negotiations were underway on positions and other benefits, as well as on removing the names of militia leaders from terrorism lists and securing other political gains.  

“The challenge remains with the fighters. These are more than 150,000 people who will suddenly find themselves without work. Will they be integrated into the security forces, or will they suddenly become unemployed and join the ranks of the jobless? In that case, they will become unorganized gangs in Iraq, and that is another problem,” he explained.