The Media Line: Former Israeli Ambassador: ‘For the First Time, Israel Has No Recourse’ in Washington  

Former Israeli Ambassador: ‘For the First Time, Israel Has No Recourse’ in Washington  

Oren: “Traditionally, if there was a problem with an [American] administration, we went to Congress. If there were problems with Congress, we went to the administration. We can’t do that. There’s nobody we can go to complain to.”  

By Maayan Hoffman / The Media Line  

Israel is in a more difficult position with the US administration than ever before and is potentially more isolated than it has been in decades, according to former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren.  

Last week, Oren briefed a small group of foreign journalists at an event organized by MediaCentral, speaking on the record about the state of the country, its leadership, and where things may go from here. Over copious plates of salads and grilled meats at a Tel Aviv restaurant, Oren—who was born in the United States, immigrated to Israel in 1979, and later became one of its most recognizable diplomats—was unabashed in his assessment of the challenges and opportunities facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He did not mince words when discussing Israel’s predicament, the possibility that Netanyahu may yet survive politically, and the country’s future if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) fails to secure the northern front.  

“For the first time in history, we have no recourse,” Oren said. “Traditionally, if there was a problem with an [American] administration, we went to Congress. If there were problems with Congress, we went to the administration. We can’t do that. There’s nobody we can go to complain to.”  

According to Oren, Israel has “lost the Democratic Party,” while the Republican Party is divided between leaders who “may not like us very much” and those intensely loyal to President Donald Trump.  

“So, who are we left with? Maybe, at times, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz. That’s a slim limb to be hanging from,” he said.  

Several Republicans have told him that the US midterm elections, scheduled for Nov. 3, are an “existential fight for Trump,” Oren said.  

“If the Democrats win in November, they’ll really move to impeach him, and [Trump will] spend the next two years trying to stay out of jail,” he said. President Trump’s supporters believe that if he does not contain the conflict in Lebanon, he will be viewed unfavorably, Oren explained. Netanyahu, meanwhile, understands that if Israel loses in Lebanon, “he can find himself being Citizen Netanyahu and not prime minister.”  

Still, Oren believes Netanyahu bears responsibility for “alienating the Democrats.”  

“I opposed his March 2015 speech to Congress,” Oren said, referring to the controversial address Netanyahu delivered to a joint session of the Republican-led US Congress. Netanyahu was invited without the Obama administration’s input and used the platform to oppose the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal that Obama later signed.  

“I didn’t think it was going to affect the vote on the nuclear deal at all, and it didn’t; and it would only cost us further support in the Democratic Party,” Oren contended. “They still talk about that speech, so I don’t know what we gained.”  

Today, Oren said, there are multiple potential Democratic presidential candidates, including many who are Jewish, and “pretty much all of them are highly critical of Israel.” He welcomed Netanyahu’s effort to negotiate a new framework for defense cooperation and US military aid. Referring to the decade-long arrangement Netanyahu hopes to put in place to protect Israel, however, Oren is not convinced the country has that much time.  

In January, Netanyahu unveiled a plan to phase out US military aid and replace it with expanded joint defense initiatives.  

“If the Democrats come back, they’re going to cut it [the aid] off immediately. There’s a big difference between morphing into a partnership where we’re equal partners and one where one side is simply cutting off the aid,” Oren said.  

For Jews living in the United States and other parts of the Diaspora, the situation is becoming increasingly untenable. According to Tel Aviv University’s 2025 Annual Antisemitism Report, 20 Jews were murdered in antisemitic attacks last year, the highest annual toll in more than three decades. The report also found that in every Western country, antisemitic incidents remained dozens of percentage points higher than before the Gaza war.   

“I’ve been in Australia, Canada, most recently in Italy and France. In every community I’ve visited, they say there’s no future for that community, which is very disheartening,” Oren told journalists. “It’s like we’re reaching a situation where the Diaspora as we know it is going to constrict very, very fast.”  

In the past, Oren said, if there was antisemitism in France, Jews could move to England, Canada, or New York. Those options, he said, are not especially reassuring now either. When Hamas broke through Israel’s border on the morning of Oct. 7, he said, it “broke through a dam, which had held back the currents of antisemitism for about 80 years, and what followed was a torrent.”  

Oren contended that it may not matter who wins Israel’s election later this year, whether it is Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, or even Netanyahu. There will ultimately not be a new perception of Israel, he said. While the country may receive a “grace period” of two or three weeks if there is a new prime minister, he said, the train has left the station, and it will be very difficult to bring it back. That is especially true, he argued, because “there’s going to be no fundamental shift in the policies that might affect our position in the world because no one’s going to sit around and create a Palestinian state tomorrow. No one’s going to be less aggressive in Gaza or in Lebanon. They’ll probably be more aggressive.”  

For Oren, Israel must remain aggressive in Lebanon because the battle against Hezbollah “is not a strategic issue. This is an existential issue … If we lose the North, we lose the country.”  

He said that if Israel stops short, Hezbollah’s rockets will eventually be launched toward Ashkelon instead of Metula.  

“For a large segment of the people who now define themselves as anti-Zionist, it’s not what we do anymore; it’s who we are, and that’s not going to change,” Oren stressed.  

Oren added that while Netanyahu is no doubt partly responsible for the events that transpired on Oct. 7, he should not be seen as solely responsible, even if “the buck ends there.”  

According to Oren, only a few days before the massacre, “the government had a meeting where they decided to send a delegation to Cairo to offer Hamas de facto sovereignty over Gaza and to be part of a gas-sharing operation.”  

Details of that account will be included in a new book Oren is publishing later this year.  

“I was in the government until 2019, and I had a tremendous amount of responsibility for Gaza,” Oren recounted. “I worked closely with the army, worked closely with the Shabak [Israel Security Agency], worked closely with Mossad. And I will tell you unconditionally, unequivocally, that the “concepzia,” as they call it, was that Hamas was deterred, was that Hamas wanted to devote its time to developing Gaza, was uninterested in the conflict, and that Israel could focus on the serious dangers, which were Hezbollah and Iran.” 

 He said this was not only the consensus among Israeli leaders but also among American officials, including those in both the Biden and Trump administrations. According to Oren, no one other than Member of Knesset Avigdor Liberman, head of the Yisrael Beitenu party and a former defense minister, had ever outwardly challenged that assumption.  

Even after nearly three years of war, Oren said, “it’s always premature to eulogize” Netanyahu politically.  

The country remains deeply divided, he said. In his largely Mizrahi neighborhood in southern Israel, “you don’t hear a word against Bibi.” Not far away, where Oren rows on the Yarkon River among a more Ashkenazi, center-left crowd, he encounters people who would do anything to remove Netanyahu from office.  

“The problem with Bibi … he’s a very, very difficult act to follow,” Oren said. “He is physically robust. He spent a lot of time in ridiculously overrated schools, and he’s probably the smartest guy I’ve ever encountered. He is a brilliant politician, whatever you want to say. He’s a survivor.”  

A recent N12 poll showed Netanyahu’s Likud party still leading with 24 seats. The closest rival was former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party with 22 seats.  

Oren also defended Netanyahu against some of his critics, arguing that he is often blamed for decisions that any Israeli prime minister likely would have made. For example, while President Trump may have dramatically shifted course after the Iran war, Oren does not believe another Israeli prime minister would have acted differently in choosing to confront Iran alongside the United States. He argued that the biggest problem with the US-Iran agreement is not its effect on Israel, but its effect on America’s standing in the world.   

“It is an incalculable blow to America’s prestige and deterrence power,” Oren said. “The Chinese are going to take notice, and the Russians are going to take notice. I can’t imagine any country will join the Abraham Accords right now. If anything, they’ll be seeking rapprochement with Tehran very quickly. I think they’re already doing it.”  

While Israel is still viewed as a powerful regional actor, and some countries may seek strategic or military cooperation, Oren noted that formal diplomatic normalization is likely off the table for now, so long as American power is less of a draw. He said Israel should spend the next several years diversifying its foreign policy by strengthening ties with India, South America, and Africa.  

Why not let another prime minister lead those efforts? Oren suggested Netanyahu may simply not be ready to step aside.  

“This is a man who is a leader, not in history, but of history,” Oren said, explaining that Netanyahu sees himself as “transformative, if not messianic.” He believes he was born to fulfill a mission.  

“Here’s a man who’s got a pacemaker, who’s now recovered from cancer, has been through I don’t know what. He doesn’t stop, and you have to ask yourself, what’s driving this human being? What animates him?” Oren said. “What animates him is a sense of mission: the mission to save Israel and the Jewish people.”  

Whether Oren is right or wrong in his assessment, his message was clear: Israel faces mounting challenges abroad, including an increasingly uncertain relationship with its closest ally. In that environment, who occupies the prime minister’s office may matter less than whether that individual, the country, and the Jewish people can navigate the turbulent years ahead.

Photo courtesy MediaCentral