The Media Line: Dueling US and Russian Proposals Put Gaza Ceasefire and Palestinian Statehood on the Line 

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Dueling US and Russian Proposals Put Gaza Ceasefire and Palestinian Statehood on the Line 

The United Nations Security Council is set to vote on rival visions that could cement a fragile truce, rewire Gaza’s governance, and shape the future of the Palestinian Authority 

By Keren Setton/The Media Line 

An American peace plan is up for a UN Security Council vote on Monday, laying out what Washington calls a “credible path” toward a Palestinian state and provoking a sharp backlash from Israel’s right wing. 

At the same time, a counterproposal drafted by Russia is also on the table, raising the stakes for both Israelis and Palestinians. 

Washington’s resolution is a follow-up to an October 9 ceasefire reached between the warring sides, seeking to lock in that deal with concrete steps. 

US officials are looking for broad support for President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza. If it passes, a multinational force will enter the Gaza Strip to oversee the truce and work to demilitarize the territory. 

Beyond the ceasefire, the resolution also lays out a vision for a Palestinian state after the Palestinian Authority (PA) carries out reforms. At that point, the draft says, “the conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” 

“Our opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory has remained unchanged,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting on Sunday, when speaking about President Trump’s 20-point plan. 

“The resolution has very problematic aspects for Israel,” Dr. Kobi Barda, an expert on American politics and geostrategy from the Holon Institute of Technology, told The Media Line. 

According to Barda, Israel will have difficulty with four parts of the resolution. One is that Israel will not be able to veto any aspect of the plan and will only be consulted. This is reflected by the opening of a Civil-Military Coordination Center by US Central Command in the southern Israeli city of Kiryat Gat, where 200 US military personnel are overseeing the ceasefire and the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. There has been a debate in Israel about the loss of sovereignty such a move symbolizes, raising questions about how much control Israel will now have over Gaza’s future. 

In addition, there will be no limitation on humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the mention of a future Palestinian state is “essentially rewarding Hamas violence,” Barda explained. “But the most humiliating of all is the fact that over 10,000 Gazan policemen will be governing Gaza.” 

This is probably a result of the lack of ability to find anyone else willing to put boots on the ground to police the Strip, he added, noting that countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which backed the ceasefire, refuse to take an active role in Gaza if Hamas still continues to govern the territory. 

The two-year war between Israel and Hamas ended last month with an ambitious US-brokered ceasefire agreement that aims to change the reality for both Israelis and Palestinians. 

Under the draft, an International Stabilization Force (ISF) would be created and an apolitical Palestinian administration established, overseen by President Trump himself as chairman of a “Board of Peace.” Should the US president’s plan, backed by the UN, be fully implemented, Gaza would be “free of Hamas,” as stated by the American mission at the UN. 

During Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Netanyahu told National Missions Minister Orit Strock that he “did not know” how long the ceasefire in Gaza would hold, saying Israel “is working to conclude Phase A” and acknowledging that three deceased hostages have yet to be returned for burial by Hamas under the current agreement. He confirmed that Israel had already given its approval to establish an international security force “for the purposes of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip.” 

Netanyahu also told ministers, “It is important to be aware that the Strip is being demilitarized, and disarmament is being carried out, including in tunnels,” and said this was the reason Israel backed the deployment of an international force. At the same time, he warned that international contingents are “reluctant” to enter Gaza and cautioned that “we must not skip this step. Hamas is in apparent agreement.” 

His comments came after Strock argued, “We did not go to war only to free hostages,” a remark that prompted an angry response later that day from the Hostages and Missing Families Forum. The group said she had exposed a “painful truth” and stressed that “the return of hostages was and still is a stated war goal—both on an ethical level, as well as on a public level. A people that does not return its children has no right to exist.” In a statement citing Ran Gavili, Dror Or, and Thai citizen Sudthisak Rinthalak, the forum vowed that it would not rest “until all hostages are home” and pledged, “we will not give anyone up and we will not leave them behind.” 

Later in the meeting, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich pressed Netanyahu on the timetable for possible renewed fighting, asking, “If you’re going back to fighting in Gaza in two months, how will you establish a state probe?” The prime minister replied, “We cannot ignore our managing of a seven-front war … the amount of time left cannot be quantified.” 

Israel’s main concerns with the resolution revolve around its loss of control over what happens in Gaza. The scope of authority granted to the ISF is unclear, and there are fears its presence could limit Israel’s operational freedom against threats that still exist in the Strip. There is uneasiness about who will oversee the flow of humanitarian aid into the territory, a thorny issue that has preoccupied Israel for decades. Palestinians want aid to flow without restriction, while Israel is hesitant to allow dual-use items such as cement, metal pipes, and steel components. Gaza needs those materials for reconstruction after the lengthy war, but Hamas also needs the same items to rebuild itself after being hit heavily by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). 

The body that would govern Gaza could also sideline Israeli security interests, placing international oversight above Israel’s own assessments. 

In an article written by US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz and published by The Washington Post on Friday, Waltz said failure to pass the resolution would result in the resumption of Israel’s war against Hamas, “condemning the region and its people to perpetual conflict.” 

On Sunday, Israeli media reported that the IDF has begun preparing plans to resume the fighting, based on the assumption that Hamas will refuse to disarm—a critical phase of the American plan for Gaza. 

The current Israeli government rules out Palestinian statehood, claiming it would become a springboard for terrorism against the Jewish state. Yet Netanyahu was among the first to endorse President Trump’s plan, which is backed by broad international support, including leading Arab and Muslim countries. 

“Gaza will be demilitarized and Hamas will disarm—either the easy way or the hard way,” Netanyahu added on Sunday, implying Israel would be willing to resume the fighting. “I had said this, and so has Trump.” 

Netanyahu and President Trump have displayed a close alliance throughout the years, with the Israeli leader often boasting of full coordination with the White House. 

“The Americans are looking forward to large and meaningful trade agreements, and they must play the diplomatic game,” Sharona Shir Zablodovsky, an expert on public policy and national security at the Dvorah Forum, told The Media Line. “Like any superpower, the US is looking to secure its own interests. Therefore, we will see a gap between the resolution and its implementation, and there will be many changes in the road ahead.” 

For the American president, the end of the conflict in Gaza is part of a broader plan to reshape the Middle East and bring trillions of American dollars of investment by countries such as Saudi Arabia into the US. Normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is meant to be one of the first steps of the plan, and the war in Gaza is a major disruption. 

Netanyahu now faces major internal opposition to the US-backed UN resolution, with some of his senior right-wing allies threatening to resign, putting the stability of his coalition at risk. 

“We will not be part of a government that allows the establishment of a Palestinian state in any form,” Itamar Ben-Gvir, a hard-line minister, posted on his X account early Sunday. 

“Trump’s vision is unstable as it rests on the goodwill of Ben-Gvir and others who have a hold on Netanyahu, and Netanyahu will do anything to avoid a solution,” said Barda. “No solution is not an option for Trump, who will impose this resolution on Israel in order to get the Saudis on board.” 

The draft resolution has the Israeli government moving with discomfort at many of its clauses, especially the fate of Hamas, which Netanyahu vowed to destroy at the beginning of the war. 

“The disarming of Hamas is by far the biggest landmine of the resolution,” Zablodovsky said. “Even countries that are pro-Israeli that will be on the ground—who will guarantee this will happen?” 

A counter-resolution submitted by Russia is also on the table. It has not been formally published, but media reports indicate it is more closely aligned with previous UN resolutions on the Palestinian issue, giving a broader role to the PA in Gaza. 

According to a statement by the Russian mission to the UN, the competing resolution was drafted to give “due regard” to two main issues the US resolution did not—namely, the two-state solution and the role of the UN Security Council in implementing the resolution. 

“The Russian proposal is likely part of the power struggle between the two superpowers and part of Russia’s desire to create a show of force in the Middle East,” Zablodovsky explained. 

On Saturday, Netanyahu spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

“The call was initiated by President Putin and, as a continuation of previous conversations in the recent period, dealt with regional issues,” read a statement by Netanyahu’s office. 

The vote on the resolution will take place on Monday. 

Russia and the US both have veto power at the UN Security Council, enabling them to cancel each other’s resolutions. In the event that either resolution is passed, it will be binding only if adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, and this is currently unknown. 

“The adoption of the American resolution will see Israel stuck with a resolution that has passed with American encouragement—and not just any encouragement, but by Trump, who is considered a great supporter of Israel,” said Barda. 

If adopted but not implemented, the resolution could be seen by the US as the preferred road to solving a conflict that has plagued the region for decades, and future US administrations could use it to pressure Israel. 

Whether the resolution will be implemented remains an open question—one that puts both Israel and Hamas to the test.