Swiss Re says GLP-1 drugs could reduce US mortality by up to 6.4%

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FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Reinsurance company Swiss Re said on Wednesday that widespread use of GLP-1 drugs to treat obesity could reduce the annual rate of death by up to 6.4% in the United States by 2045.

The GLP-1 drug class, which include Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, has enjoyed unprecedented demand in recent years, with some analysts projecting annual combined sales of $150 billion by the end of the decade.

The Zurich-based reinsurer said the new weight-loss drugs would have “significant implications” for companies selling medical and life insurances.

If the insurance industry can encourage people to make lifestyle changes to prevent obesity-related disease, “we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives,” said Paul Murray, Swiss Re’s head of life and health reinsurance.

Citing its own research, Swiss Re said that mortality from any cause, or the number of people dying over a given time period, would decline by 6.4% in the United States by 2045 under a scenario of GLP-1 drugs getting used at a high rate and long term, with users also changing their lifestyles.

The report concluded that under pessimistic assumptions, however, the 2045 reduction in U.S. mortality would be 2.3%.

It also estimated that the 2045 decline in mortality in Britain would likely be between 1.8% and 5.1%, depending on the scenarios of pharmaceutical use and lifestyle improvements.

The reinsurer said its research focused on the U.S. and Britain because of high obesity rates and strong uptake of the drugs in those countries.

(Reporting by Ludwig Burger, Editing by Miranda Murray)