Swalwell departure helps Democrats narrow field in California race

By Daniel Trotta

April 15 (Reuters) – The departure of California gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell helps Democrats narrow the field in a June primary election, which could hurt Republicans who had been leading the race to succeed Gavin Newsom.

Swalwell, 45, left the race and the U.S. Congress after reporting by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN that a former staffer accused Swalwell of sexual assault and three other women came forward with allegations of sexual impropriety. A fifth woman later accused him of sexual assault. Swalwell has denied the allegations.

In a field of 61 candidates, including 24 Democrats and 12 Republicans, Swalwell led or was near the top among the Democrats ahead of the June 2 primary and was among the five candidates to meet the polling threshold to qualify for the first televised debate scheduled next Wednesday.

In California’s “jungle primary,” the top two vote-getters advance to the runoff in November, even if they are from the same party. In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, polls have shown two Republican candidates leading the pack overall – former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. The long list of marquee name Democrats has fragmented support.

“This horrible scandal may have the effect of solving the problems that the Democratic Party leaders couldn’t solve for themselves by narrowing the field, concentrating support on just a few candidates and thus increasing the chances that one Democrat makes it through to November,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California San Diego.

Analysts say the two Democrats best-placed to pick up Swalwell voters may be fellow front-runners Tom Steyer and Katie Porter.

Steyer is a hedge fund billionaire who has spent $100 million of his own money running for governor.

Porter, a former U.S. representative, gained a national following with her questioning of witnesses in congressional hearings. She would pull out a white board in front of wealthy executives to illustrate the affordability difficulties for average Americans.

ALL PREVIOUS CALIFORNIA GOVERNORS HAVE BEEN WHITE MEN

Nearly a decade after the “Me Too” movement rose to prominence and with the Jeffrey Epstein scandal still making headlines, five political analysts told Reuters it was a plausible but untested hypothesis that Porter, as a woman, might stand to gain by Swalwell’s fall.

But they also said Swalwell’s departure could help raise the profile of minority candidates such as Xavier Becerra, a former state attorney general and cabinet secretary; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and former State Controller Betty Yee.

A debate previously scheduled for March 25 was canceled because it triggered an uproar over race representation as the six candidates to qualify – Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Porter, Swalwell and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan – were all white.  Organizers have to yet to say if Swalwell will be replaced on the debate stage next week.

In a liberal state where 30% of eligible voters are Latino, California has only elected white men as governor.

“On the Democratic side, it is really causing voters to take a harder look and engage now and really be thoughtful about this process, which hopefully is going to lead to greater participation and more voter turnout,” said Christy Smith, who trains women to run for office as executive director of the nonprofit Emerge California.

Smith said many voters felt betrayed by an electoral process that fails to properly vet candidates’ character.

“We still do not have a system that supports survivors, and what’s happening with the women who are victims of Epstein and others is just the perfect example,” Smith said.

The remaining field will be pursuing Swalwell’s financial backers and the endorsement of two of the most powerful labor organizations in California – the Service Employees International Union and the California Teachers Association – both of which supported Swalwell and have yet to endorse anyone else.

Newsom, term-limited from the governor’s race, is widely seen as pursuing a 2028 bid for president.

(Reporting by Daniel Trotta in Carlsbad, California; Editing by Donna Bryson and Raju Gopalakrishnan)