Signs global trade in goods is starting to slow, WTO says

By Olivia Le Poidevin

GENEVA, June 5 (Reuters) – The World Trade Organization said on Friday there were signs global merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow, though it had shown resilience in the first half of 2026 in the face of widespread disruption sparked by the Middle East conflict.

The negative impact of the conflict may have been partly offset by surging demand for electronic components related to AI, according to the WTO Goods Trade Barometer report.

The WTO barometer predicts trade developments two to three months ahead. Barometer values greater than 100 suggest trade is growing faster than usual, or is likely to do so soon, while below 100 indicates trade is weaker than usual or is expected to weaken soon.

The barometer index reading fell from 102.3 in January to 101.7, suggesting that merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow. The index, however, is above its baseline value of 100, indicating that the volume of trade remains above trend. 

In March this year the WTO said growth in world trade in goods would slow down markedly to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025 and could decelerate even more if the Middle East war continued to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport.

The electronic components index showed a rise firmly above trend at 105.5, while the agricultural raw materials index was slightly below trend. Air freight and container shipping were growing at a slower rate than a few months ago, but were still above trend at 102.2 and 102.4 respectively. 

“On balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signalling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth,” the report said.

(Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin; editing by Matthias Williams and Alex Richardson)