Rivian sees 2026 delivery jump driven by rollout of smaller, more affordable R2 SUVs

By Akash Sriram and Abhirup Roy

Feb 12 (Reuters) – Rivian Automotive’s results beat Wall Street targets and the electric vehicle maker stoked expectations for its rival to Tesla’s best-selling Model Y, saying its new, more affordable R2 SUVs would drive a 53% jump in 2026 deliveries.

Shares of the company, known for its R1 family of high-end electric SUVs and pickup trucks, surged more than 15% in after-hours trading on Thursday.

The new R2 model, priced in a similar range to the Model Y starting at about $45,000 and expected in the second quarter, is seen as critical for Rivian’s success as demand for EVs has weakened following the expiry of federal tax credits last year.

Scaringe told Reuters that volumes for the R1T pickup, R1S SUV and its electric delivery vans would remain largely flat from 2025 levels, when the company delivered 42,247 vehicles.

“The growth is really, of course, what we see in R2,” he said. That implies more than 22,000 R2 vehicle deliveries in 2026, well above the 13,400 deliveries Wall Street was expecting.

The automaker, which remains unprofitable, expects overall deliveries to be between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year, largely in line with estimates of 64,130 vehicles in 2026, according to Visible Alpha data.

Rivian will first introduce a high-performance, dual-motor variant of the R2 with the largest battery pack, followed by some other trims. It will not launch all of the variants this year, Scaringe said, without disclosing when the $45,000 vehicle will be available.

Analysts expect the cheaper R2 model will help Rivian rekindle demand with its lower price tag attracting a larger swathe of buyers.

“In other words, Rivian is focused on shifting from a luxury brand to a high-volume mass market player,” Andrew Rocco, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research. “So investors are betting they can get the R2 up to scale. The main hurdle is to ensure there are no production issues like they encountered in the past.”

The R2 rollout comes at a time when several traditional automakers have pulled back on current and planned production of EVs following changes in policies by the Trump administration, including imposing tariffs on auto part imports and removing hefty penalties on combustion engine vehicle manufacturers that fail to meet emission standards.

CAPITAL INTENSIVE

Rivian’s preparations for the R2 launch in the second quarter, along with its efforts to expand in-house autonomous driving features, will be capital intensive.

Capital spending is expected to nearly double to between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion this year, Rivian said, higher than the $1.92 billion analysts were expecting, according to data compiled by LSEG.

While for now R2 will be manufactured at Rivian’s plant in Normal, Illinois, the company is building a second factory in Georgia to expand production.

The company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $3.58 billion at the end of December, compared with $4.44 billion at the end of September.

While Rivian is set to receive $2 billion this year from Volkswagen as part of a technology joint venture, Scaringe said Rivian will be “opportunistic with regards to raising additional capital” as it consumes cash through the year.

Rivian has been doubling down on cost-cutting by renegotiating supplier contracts, simplifying manufacturing and reducing its workforce.

Its adjusted loss per share for the fourth quarter came in at 54 cents, lower than estimates of 68 cents. Revenue was $1.29 billion, beating analysts’ average estimate of $1.26 billion.

The fourth quarter marked the first full reporting period after the $7,500 federal tax credit on EV purchases expired at the end of September, raising prices and slowing EV deliveries, including for market leader Tesla.

For 2026, its full-year adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is expected to be between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $1.81 billion.

(Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Jamie Freed)