OPEC+ unlikely to change output policy at Oct. 2 panel meeting

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By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Maha El Dahan

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) – An OPEC+ panel is unlikely this week to recommend any changes to its current deal to reduce production and to start unwinding some cuts from December, despite recent sharp declines in oil prices, five sources from the producer group told Reuters.

Top ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+ as the group is known, will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) meeting on Wednesday at 1200 GMT.

“Although the oil market situation is a bit complicated, I do not expect a new decision or any change to the OPEC+ agreement in Wednesday’s meeting,” one of the sources said, declining to be identified.

Oil prices have fallen in 2024 with Brent crude last month slipping below $70 a barrel for the first time since 2021, pressured by concern about global demand and rising supply outside OPEC+. Brent was trading near $71 on Tuesday. [O/R]

OPEC+ is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since late 2022.

Its latest agreement calls for OPEC+ to raise output by 180,000 bpd in December, part of a plan to gradually unwind its most recent layer of voluntary cuts during 2025. The hike was delayed from October after prices slid.

Compliance by countries with cuts will also be in focus at the meeting and in coming weeks, particularly that of Iraq and Kazakhstan which have promised so called compensation cuts of 123,000 bpd in September and more in later months to make up for past over-production.

An OPEC+ source told Reuters last week that when it becomes clearer that the compensation cuts are being made in September, this will allow the December increase to go ahead as the net supply addition to the market will be minimal.

However, a lack of compliance could prompt Saudi Arabia and others to unwind their cuts faster from December, analysts said.

“If they fail to comply, we can envision a swifter sunsetting of the voluntary cuts,” Helima Croft of RBC Capital said in a report.

The JMMC, which groups the oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other leading producers, usually meets every two months and can make recommendations to change policy.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Ahmad Ghaddar and Olesya Astakhova; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)