OPEC+ likely to agree small oil output increase for December, sources say

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By Olesya Astakhova, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler

LONDON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -OPEC+ will likely agree on Sunday another small hike in oil output targets for December, three sources familiar with the talks said, as the group moderates its drive to regain market share amid predictions of a supply glut next year.

OPEC+ has raised output targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day – about 2.5% of global supply – since April but slowed the pace in October and November to 137,000 bpd from larger increases amid predictions of a looming oversupply.

New Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia are adding to challenges in the discussions as Moscow may struggle to further raise output.

Eight OPEC+ members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria – are set to agree on Sunday to increase December output targets by another 137,000 bpd, the three sources said, all of whom declined to be named.

A fourth source said a pause in output hikes was also possible.

OPEC, the office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and Saudi Arabia’s government media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Oil prices fell to a five-month low of about $60 a barrel on October 20 on concerns that a glut was building, but have since recovered to about $65 on the sanctions on Russia and optimism over trade talks.

Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will not raise production significantly unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption, RBC analyst Helima Croft said in a note this week.

Croft expects the group to raise targets by 137,000 bpd.

Rystad, Commerzbank and SEB also expect a 137,000 bpd increase.

The Sunday meeting is scheduled for 1400 GMT, a source said.

(Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan. Editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Susan Fenton)