Oil steadies as Iran supply fears ease and Greenland moves into spotlight

By Amanda Stephenson

CALGARY, Jan 19 (Reuters) – Oil prices steadied on Monday as civil unrest in Iran subsided, reducing the likelihood of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from the major producer, while market-watchers turned their attention to a stand-off over Greenland.

Brent crude was up one cent, or 0.02%, at $64.14 a barrel by 1946 GMT. West Texas Intermediate for February was flat on the previous day’s settlement at $59.44 a barrel.

Trading activity was muted due to a U.S. federal holiday.

Iran’s violent crackdown has quelled protests that officials say killed 5,000 people. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, seems to have stepped back from earlier threats of intervention.

“With fears around Iran subsiding over the last few days after rumours of a U.S. attack, the market is now focusing on the Greenland situation and how deep any fallout between the U.S. and Europe could be, as any trade war expansion could impact demand,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

Trump has intensified his push to wrest sovereignty over Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark, threatening punitive tariffs on countries that stand in his way and prompting the European Union to weigh hitting back with its own measures.

EU leaders will convene in Brussels on Thursday for an emergency summit, a European Union spokesperson said on Monday.

As Greenland does not produce oil, there is no direct connection for crude markets, said Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston. But the row over the island is a broadly risk-off development for investors, he said, pointing to Monday’s selloff in equity markets.

Global stocks dropped and the dollar eased against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday on concerns about a possible trade war between the U.S. and Europe.

The market was also looking at the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supplies at a time when colder weather is forecast to cross North America and Europe, adding to market unease, said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans. 

In the longer term, the crude market will continue to face downward pressure from an increase in Venezuelan oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, while a new forecast from the International Monetary Fund predicting stronger economic growth in 2026 should increase demand expectations, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for the Price Futures Group.

“The market is going to be locked in by competing bullish and bearish forces, leading to a sort of sideways trade,” Flynn said.

(Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Calgary, Robert Harvey and Seher Dareen in London, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, David Goodman and Edmund Klamann)