Novavax raises revenue forecast on boost from vaccine deals, shares soar

By Mariam Sunny and Michael Erman

Feb 26 (Reuters) – Novavax raised its adjusted revenue forecast for 2026 on Thursday, banking on milestone payments from licensing and supply deals for its shots, although it noted that the current regulatory environment posed a risk for vaccine companies.

The company’s upbeat forecast and strong results sent its shares soaring more than 22%. It swung to a profit from a year-earlier loss as cost cuts and licensing deals helped cushion the blow from restrictive U.S. recommendations for COVID-19 shots.

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A sharp shift in U.S. vaccine policy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic, has prompted major health agencies to revise their approach to oversight and overhaul long-standing immunization schedules, leading to falling vaccination rates.

Talking on a post-earnings call, Novavax CEO John Jacobs expressed concern over the regulatory climate in the U.S.

“The current macro and regulatory environment in the United States poses some significant uncertainties for vaccine companies,” Jacobs said, but added that he remained optimistic about the future of vaccines and of Novavax.

The U.S. CDC’s vaccine advisory committee is set to discuss issues including COVID-19 vaccine injuries and long COVID and may vote on recommendations for the shots at a meeting scheduled next month.

“There’s a meeting now on the books, so that’s good,” Jacobs said, adding that he does not anticipate “choice being completely removed from the American population on important tools like vaccines.”

Earlier this month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration initially refused to review rival Moderna’s mRNA-based flu vaccine, then reversed course a week later after the company amended its application.

Novavax now expects 2026 adjusted revenue between $230 million and $270 million, up from its prior forecast of $185 million to $205 million. Those numbers exclude sales and royalties from its partnership with Sanofi.

Last month, Novavax licensed its Matrix-M adjuvant, which improves the body’s response to vaccines, to Pfizer for up to $530 million.

Novavax’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 67% to $147 million, topping analysts’ estimate of $78.84 million, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Net income for the quarter was $18 million, compared with a net loss of $81 million a year earlier.

(Reporting by Mariam Sunny in Bengaluru and Michael Erman in New Jersey; Editing by Anil D’Silva)