A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Rising equities and falling bond prices portray the market’s sanguine view on monetary policy, with a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting not only seen as a sure thing but also having decent odds for being a super-sized one. Wall […]
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Morning Bid: Specter of stagflation clouds Fed cut optimism
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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Rising equities and falling bond prices portray the market’s sanguine view on monetary policy, with a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting not only seen as a sure thing but also having decent odds for being a super-sized one.
Wall Street closed at fresh record highs overnight, Taiwan’s benchmark is vaulting to a new all-time peak, and Japan’s Nikkei is ticking back towards Tuesday’s unprecedented levels.
Although it looks like Donald Trump won’t have his economic adviser Stephen Miran on the Fed’s board of governors for the September 16-17 meeting – after a judge temporarily blocked the U.S. President from removing Governor Lisa Cook – the undeniable weakness of the labour market means that policy easing is imminent.
What is in question, though, is how much still-sticky inflation complicates the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, with markets getting two days of crucial data in the form of PPI today and CPI tomorrow.
Heated inflation readings would surely restart murmurs about dreaded stagflation, making the Fed’s next steps precarious.
Currently the market has 66 basis points of easing priced by year-end, and 7% odds for a 50 basis point cut next Wednesday.
The Fed remains the dominant story across markets globally, although European investors need to keep one eye on geopolitical developments after NATO-member Poland for the first time shot down apparent Russian drones that it said encroached on its airspace during an attack on western Ukraine.
French politics, of course, is another focus, with deeply unpopular President Emmanuel Macron’s naming of 39-year-old loyalist Sebastien Lecornu as his fifth prime minister in less than two years begging the question of how long either man can cling to power.
The outcome of the ECB’s two-day meeting that starts today is more certain, with economists all but united in expecting rates to stay steady. A month ago, economists were split on the chances of another cut, but unemployment at a record low while inflation hovers close to target has changed those dovish minds.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-US PPI (August)
-Sweden monthly GDP (July)
-Norway, Denmark CPI (both August)
-Italy, Spain, Greece industrial output (all July)
(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)