Morning Bid: Middle East tumult leaves markets in disarray

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee

So U.S. and European stock futures pushed higher on Friday while Asian stocks pared early losses, presumably on a minor retreat in oil prices as the U.S. government mulls intervening in the futures market to blunt the surge.

How that will work, however, remains a question. Trying to distort a derivative when the physical product is in short supply doesn’t seem particularly wise.

That aside, war in the Middle East rages on, upending everything from shipping to air travel and business activity.

Ever eager to involve himself in world affairs, U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted to have a say in deciding Iran’s next leader.

It’s been a turbulent week for markets, as investors swung between wishful thinking and sheer panic over the potential length and severity of the conflict.

The fallout of the war has been felt most acutely in the energy market, with oil headed for its largest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Fears of a resurgence in inflation remained at the forefront of the minds of investors, who have quickly moved to price in more hawkish rate expectations across major central banks, sending yields higher.

Stocks in Asia, meanwhile, were headed for their largest weekly fall in six years.

With so much going on, one could almost forget that U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due later in the day.

Expectations are for the world’s largest economy to have added 59,000 jobs in February after accelerating by 130,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is forecast to have held steady at 4.3%.

While it may be too early to see concrete evidence of AI-related labour market disruption, the report will still be closely scrutinised for warning signs, including weak job growth, or even net job losses, and an unwelcome rise in unemployment.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

– U.S. nonfarm payrolls (February)

– Federal Reserve’s Daly, Paulson, Collins, Hammack speak

(Editing by Jamie Freed)