Mega IPOs set to test US market depth despite volatility

By Charlie Conchie, Yantoultra Ngui and Echo Wang

LONDON/SINGAPORE/NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) – Companies raised the most through share sales in the first quarter since 2021, and mega-IPOs from Space X and OpenAI may raise tens of billions more in the coming months despite volatility amid the Iran war and a software stock selloff, according to new data and dealmakers.

Equity capital markets issuance jumped 40% on the year to $211 billion in the three months to March 31, according to LSEG data. Of that, IPO proceeds made up $44 billion, up 47% on the year, though the number of listings slipped 4% to 297.

Deal values were boosted by large transactions in sectors shielded from much of the global turmoil, including the $4.5 billion IPO of Czech defence group CSG, the quarter’s biggest.

The figures point to investor resilience and appetite for large defence and AI infrastructure listings, which have proven more resilient than software amid geopolitical tensions. Attention is now turning in the coming months to the United States, where several high‑profile IPOs are expected.

RESILIENCE DESPITE GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY

SpaceX is expected to raise more than $75 billion at a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, potentially one of the largest IPOs in history. AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic are also considering listings later this year, potentially raising tens of billions.

Earlier this month, Japanese payments firm PayPay went ahead with its IPO after a one-day delay linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

“The resilience that we’ve seen in this market, given all of the turbulence that’s out there, is quite remarkable,” said John Kolz, global head of equity capital markets at Barclays.

“We can’t bury our heads in the sand over it. There are any number of reasons why investors could say, ‘don’t call me for a while, we need to let things set settle down’. But they haven’t done that,” he added.

The IPO pipeline has also been buoyed by private equity firms looking to list their larger assets.

DEEP U.S. MARKETS ABLE TO WITHSTAND VOLATILITY

U.S. companies have raised more than $23 billion in IPOs so far this year, up 91% on the year, LSEG data shows, as strong institutional demand and the depth of U.S. capital markets absorb large transactions despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, nearly $7 billion has been raised via IPOs so far this year, up from $5.8 billion last year, while deal values across Asian markets surged 15% to $13.6 billion, the data shows.

“Even with recent volatility elevated, the market can still absorb meaningful size, including very large transactions,” said Phyllis Wang, head of APAC equity capital market syndicate at Goldman Sachs.

The technology sector continued to drive issuance, particularly for AI infrastructure, Wang said, while activity was also broadening into industrials, natural resources and financials.

EUROPE’S IPOs FOCUS ON DEFENCE

In Europe, the IPO pipeline is skewed towards defence, though companies across sectors are preparing listings later this year, Antoine Noblot, head of northern Europe equity capital markets at BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

Still, several large deals were postponed globally, including Visma’s potential $20 billion IPO in London and the 1 billion euro ($1.19 billion) float of Dutch telecoms firm Odido, Reuters has previously reported.

Many investors are “expecting the IPOs that are slated for Q2 to price successfully,” said Saadi Soudavaar, head of EMEA equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank. “But that obviously depends on market volatility subsiding and how things evolve geopolitically and on the macroeconomic front.”

(Reporting by Charlie Conchie in London, Yantoultra Ngui in Singapore and Echo Wang in New York; Editing by Anousha Sakoui and Bernadette Baum)