Meatpacker JBS sees US cattle shortage lasting through 2026

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By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -U.S. beef margins for JBS, the world’s largest meat company, will likely tighten in the fourth quarter from the prior period due to a persistent shortage of U.S. cattle, company executives said in a conference call on Friday.

After JBS reported a third-quarter profit decline partly due to negative U.S. beef margins, they said 2026 will still be challenging in terms of cattle supply in the U.S., with gradual improvements likely in 2027.

In Brazil, where JBS owns multiple beef-packing plants, herd size is expected to fall by 3% to 5% in 2026 after farmers sold more female cows for slaughter this year.

Still, JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said this is not worrying because Brazil’s herd has grown, indicating that the expected decline will not necessarily hurt the company.

Tomazoni said long-term agreements with farmers to source cattle in Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, and livestock management improvements – including richer diets and more cattle passing through feedlots – should help offset the predicted fall in Brazil’s cattle availability.

“The U.S. has less than a half of Brazil’s cattle herd and they produce more beef,” Tomazoni said.

Most of Brazil’s cattle are still grass-fed, according to experts. That means the weight of the animal processed in the country is lower than in the U.S., yielding less beef per kill.

According to Brazilian statistics agency IBGE, Brazil has 238 million head of cattle. In the second quarter, the country processed more female cows than male ones for the first time since 1997, which may compromise calf production going forward.

Private consultancies say determining the real size of Brazil’s herd is difficult. Some put Brazil’s herd size at approximately 190 million head.

(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Richard Chang)