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Iraqis vote in election they expect to bring little reform

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By Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD (Reuters) -Iraqis voted in parliamentary elections on Tuesday in which Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was seeking a second term but many disillusioned young voters saw it as a vehicle for established parties to divide up Iraq’s oil wealth.

Turnout in Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 reached just over 23% as of midday, the state election commission said, and polling closed at 6 p.m. (1500 GMT).

Preliminary results were due to be announced during the next 48 hours, with the final outcome expected next week, commission officials said.

Sudani’s bloc was forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority, potentially meaning months of post-election talks among Shi’ite and Sunni Muslim as well as Kurdish parties to divvy up government posts and pick a prime minister.

“These elections (re)affirm the principle of peaceful transfer of power under Iraq’s new political system,” said Sudani as he arrived at a Baghdad polling station, pushing his mother in a wheelchair as he cast his vote.

Elections in Iraq are increasingly marked by low turnout. Many voters have lost faith in a system that has failed to break a pattern of state capture by powerful parties with armed loyalists, while ordinary Iraqis complain of endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment.

Turnout is projected by analysts and pollsters to slip below the record low of 41% recorded in 2021, due partly to general disaffection and a boycott by populist Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who counts hundreds of thousands of voters among his core support base.

DISILLUSIONMENT WITH THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

The vote this year featured a raft of young candidateshoping to break into politics, but their chances against old patronage networks were uncertain.

“This election will not depend on popularity. It will depend on spending money,” former prime minister Haider al-Abadi said during a televised interview last month.

“I will not vote for corrupt politicians or militia leaders because I don’t want to be complicit in their crimes over the next four years,” said Salih Abdul Hassan, a 64-year-old lawyer from the southern oil city of Basra.

Analysts warn that low turnout could further erode confidence in a system critics say benefits the few while neglecting the many.

“For Iraq’s 21 million registered voters, Tuesday’s ballot may do little more than endorse a familiar political order,” said Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis.

“The results are not expected to make dramatic changes in the Iraqi political map.”

Still, the vote comes at a sensitive time for the country.

The next government will need to navigate the delicate balance between U.S. and Iranian influence, and manage dozens of armed groups that are closer to Iran and answerable more to their own leaders than to the state, all while facing growing pressure from Washington to dismantle those militias.

PRESSURE TO DELIVER

Iraq has so far avoided the worst of the regional upheaval caused by the Gaza war, but will face U.S. and Israeli wrath if it fails to contain militants aligned with Iran.

Those elected will also face domestic pressure to deliver tangible improvements in everyday life and prevent public discontent over corruption from escalating into unrest, as it did during mass demonstrations in 2019 and 2020.

Iraq began voting for its political leaders in 2005, after the 2003 U.S. invasion which toppled autocrat Saddam Hussein.

Early elections were marred by sectarian violence and boycotted by Sunni Muslims as Saddam’s ouster allowed for the political dominance of the majority Shi’ites, whom he had suppressed during his long rule.

Sectarianism has largely subsided, especially among younger Iraqis, but remains embedded in a political system that shares out government posts among Shi’ites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians and other ethnic and religious groups.

Under Iraq’s sectarian power-sharing system, the prime minister will be Shi’ite, the speaker of parliament Sunni, and the president a Kurd.

Nonetheless, some Iraqis were keen to vote and are hopeful of change. In the capital Baghdad, retired teacher Majid Ibrahim said he arrived to vote an hour before polling stations opened.

“I came to vote for change toward a better future for Iraq. I am optimistic that what is coming will be better.”

(Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed and Muayad Hameed, Editing by John Davison, Aidan Lewis and Mark Heinrich)

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