Industrial giants regain footing as tariff turmoil recedes

Audio By Carbonatix

Enlarge

By Utkarsh Shetti

(Reuters) -Industrial companies have been on a roller-coaster this year as they tried to adjust to the shifting trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, but this quarter, executives suggested the confusion may be receding as corporations have had time to adjust to higher levies on U.S. imports of foreign goods.

Unlike in the first half of the year, some of the U.S. bellwethers that reflect the “real economy” – heavy machinery, engine makers and construction firms – have navigated the environment with strong demand, cost-cutting and price increases to offset the Trump administration’s tariffs. While there are still plenty of concerns about coming quarters, the unpredictability factor has faded, executives say.

“Certainly, from a cost standpoint and maybe from a demand standpoint … tariffs are no longer the kind of the main event here,” Michael Larsen, chief financial officer at Illinois Tool Works, said on a post-result analyst call last week.

Companies that have reported results between October 16 and October 31 put the total estimated hit to global companies’ bottom lines at about $7 billion, according to a Reuters analysis, though the markets are still only about midway through the earnings season globally. In the second quarter, that figure was estimated at a range of $16.2 billion to $17.9 billion. 

STRONGER REVENUE GROWTH

U.S. industrial companies at present are reporting their best year-over-year revenue growth since the first quarter of 2023 at 6.3%, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Over the summer, equipment maker Caterpillar estimated tariffs would cost the firm between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion in 2025. In results released on October 29, it narrowed that range to $1.6 billion to $1.75 billion after reporting a strong quarter, and its shares rose 12%.

“Generally speaking, industrial companies are doing a pretty good job managing through the uncertainty and the changes in the tariff landscape,” said Joshua Schachter, chief investment officer at Easterly Asset Management.

Logistics giants UPS and FedEx cut costs to offset the scrapping of duty-free status for low-value e-commerce shipments. However, UPS has also sharply cut its payrolls, jettisoning 48,000 jobs in the face of continued pressure on its business this year.

Analysts fear the bleak outlook among lower- and middle-income earners that has hit consumer companies like Newell will reach other parts of the economy. In addition, the Trump administration reached agreements with numerous nations that set levies on foreign imports for many between 15% and 20% – after a previous pause left them at 10%. That effect has not yet been fully felt. 

“This is the real beginning of when the effects of tariffs would have hit,” said Angela Santos, partner and customs practice group leader at ArentFox Schiff. “We’re only in October and the increases for reciprocal tariffs started in August, so it hasn’t been that long.”

EUROPEAN COMPANIES STILL FACING THE HEAT        

Some European companies that rely on U.S. sales have had it worse, as U.S. importers are less likely to buy their products due to the high levies. 

SKF, a Swedish bearings maker considered a global manufacturing barometer, expects weak short-term demand as customers remain hesitant due to tariffs and uncertainty. “If we can get a bit more calm and stability, then I think we will see demand return,” SKF CEO Rickard Gustafson told Reuters on Wednesday.

Swedish construction equipment maker HIAB told Reuters that orders have been slowing since mid-February due to trade tensions. 

The German Engineering Federation VDMA, which represents 3,600 machinery and plant engineering companies, has warned that more than half of German and European machinery exports could be hit with new tariffs if Washington includes more products on its list of aluminum and steel levies. European car makers like Volkswagen have been hit particularly hard, with the latter flagging a $5.8 billion tariff hit in its most recent results.

Yale’s Budget Lab, which has been tracking trade policies, says the effective U.S. tariff rate stood at 18% as of mid-October, highest in more than 90 years.

The Trump Administration’s new 25% tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts are scheduled to start on November 1, including dump trucks and tractors for 18-wheelers, alongside a 10% tariff on imported buses.

The full effects are still to be felt as industrial companies are going through inventory that hasn’t been hit with tariffs yet, said Don Marleau, managing director for metals and capital goods at S&P Global.

“In a lot of cases, we don’t have higher tariff costs yet. We have higher estimates for tariff costs.”

(Reporting by Utkarsh Shetti in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gaffen and Maju Samuel)