How Republicans are winning the war over US congressional redistricting, state by state

By Joseph Ax

May 29 (Reuters) – Several Republican-led states across the South are rushing to redraw their congressional maps ahead of November’s midterm elections in a bid to help save their party’s narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the latest round in a year-long national fight over redistricting.

The political war began last summer, when U.S. President Donald Trump pushed Texas Republicans to install a new map targeting five Democratic-held seats. California Democrats responded with their own map taking aim at five Republican incumbents, and other states soon followed suit.

As of this spring, the two parties had fought roughly to a draw. But a pair of court decisions – a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that eviscerated protections for majority-Black districts, and a Virginia Supreme Court decision overturning a Democratic-backed map in that state – have given Republicans a decided advantage.

Republicans now appear poised to end the cycle having increased their edge in as many as 10 House seats nationwide. Democrats need to flip only three Republican-held seats from 2024 to win a majority, so every district could prove pivotal. Here is how the conflict is unfolding across the country:

REPUBLICAN GAINS

TENNESSEE – ONE SEAT

Tennessee Republican lawmakers on May 7 approved a new congressional map dismantling a majority-Black district centered in Memphis, becoming the first state to take advantage of the U.S. Supreme Court decision that hollowed out the Voting Rights Act.

The district’s current representative, Democrat Steve Cohen, announced he would not seek reelection following the redistricting, all but guaranteeing Republicans will win a clean sweep of all nine seats in November.

SOUTH CAROLINA – EFFORT FAILED

The state Senate on May 26 rejected a new map that would have taken apart the district represented by longtime Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn. Despite pressure from the White House, several Republicans broke ranks and joined Democrats in foiling the proposal, which had easily passed the state House of Representatives.

Republicans currently control the state’s other six U.S. House districts.

ALABAMA – POSSIBLY ONE SEAT

A panel of three U.S. judges on May 26 blocked Alabama from advancing a new map that would eliminate one of two U.S. House districts that are majority or near-majority Black, ruling that lawmakers intentionally harmed Black voters in drawing the lines.

Alabama Republicans have appealed that order to the U.S. Supreme Court, which had previously lifted an earlier block from the same panel and ordered the judges to re-examine the map in light of the high court’s decision in April that weakened the Voting Rights Act.

Democrats hold the two districts with significant Black populations, while Republicans control the other five seats.

TEXAS – UP TO FIVE SEATS

The U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way in early December for a new Republican-backed map that targets five Democratic-held seats. The court’s decision overturned a lower court ruling that had concluded the map likely discriminated against minority voters.

Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed the map into law in August. Weeks earlier, more than 50 Democratic lawmakers fled the state, temporarily preventing a vote, but ultimately returned. Republicans already control 25 of Texas’ 38 seats under a Republican-drawn map from 2021.

FLORIDA – UP TO FOUR SEATS

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis drew a new map aimed at flipping four Democratic-held seats and called a special legislative session in late April, where the Republican majority passed it into law. Democrats have vowed to challenge the map in court, citing a state constitutional provision that expressly bars the legislature from drawing districts purely for partisan gain.

Republicans already control 20 of the state’s 28 seats, after DeSantis and the legislature passed a new map in 2022 that flipped four Democratic seats.

MISSOURI – ONE SEAT

Republican Governor Mike Kehoe signed a new map into law in September that dismantled a Democratic-held seat based in Kansas City, giving his party the advantage in seven of the state’s eight congressional seats.

OHIO – UP TO TWO SEATS

A quirk in state law required a new map for 2026 because the previous one was approved with no Democratic votes. The state’s redistricting commission, which includes five Republicans and two Democrats, unanimously approved a compromise map in October that boosted Republican chances of flipping two Democratic-held seats but did not go as far as Democrats had feared. Republicans hold 10 of the state’s 15 seats.

NORTH CAROLINA – ONE SEAT

The state legislature’s Republican majority approved a new map in October designed to flip a Democratic seat, which would give Republicans control of 11 of the state’s 14 U.S. House seats despite its status as a divided swing state. Under state law, Democratic Governor Josh Stein had no say in the process.     

LOUISIANA – POSSIBLY ONE SEAT

Republican Governor Jeff Landry suspended the state’s May 16 primary election for the U.S. House immediately after the U.S. Supreme Court found Louisiana’s map was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The Republican-majority state House of Representatives passed a new map on May 28 that eliminates one of two districts with significant Black populations, both held by Democrats. The state Senate is expected to approve the plan, which would likely allow Republicans to flip the seat in November. Republicans already hold four of the state’s six districts.

INDIANA – EFFORT FAILED

Indiana’s Republican-controlled Senate rejected a new map aimed at flipping the state’s only two Democratic House seats, a rare rebuke to Trump from members of his own party. Republicans control seven of the state’s nine U.S. House seats.

KANSAS – EFFORT FAILED

Kansas Republicans abandoned a Trump-backed effort to redraw the state’s congressional map after the state House speaker, Republican Dan Hawkins, said in January there was not enough support in his chamber to overcome a veto threat from Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. Republicans already hold three of the state’s four U.S. House seats.

DEMOCRATIC GAINS

CALIFORNIA – UP TO FIVE SEATS

Voters overwhelmingly approved a new map backed by Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic lawmakers designed to flip as many as five Republican-held seats in direct response to Texas. Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 districts.

VIRGINIA – EFFORT BLOCKED BY COURT

Virginia voters on April 21 approved a new Democratic-drawn congressional map in a special election that could have flipped four Republican U.S. House seats. But the state Supreme Court on May 8 threw out the results, ruling that Democratic lawmakers did not follow proper procedures when they passed the proposed referendum and put it on the ballot.

UTAH – ONE SEAT

A state judge threw out a Republican-drawn map as illegally partisan and implemented an alternative that is likely to flip one of the state’s four Republican-held seats to Democrats.

MARYLAND – EFFORT STALLED

Democrats in the state House advanced a new map in February that targeted the state’s only Republican member of Congress, a move championed by Democratic Governor Wes Moore and national Democratic leaders. Democrats hold the state’s other seven House districts.

But the state Senate president, Democrat Bill Ferguson, opposed the bill, though he has suggested he might be willing to revisit the issue ahead of 2028.

NEW YORK – EFFORT BLOCKED BY COURT

A New York judge in January ordered the state’s independent redistricting commission to redraw a Republican-held congressional district centered on New York City’s borough of Staten Island, potentially giving Democrats a chance to flip the seat in November. However, the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority put that decision on hold on March 2, granting a request from the incumbent Republican, Nicole Malliotakis.

Democrats hold 19 of the state’s 26 seats.

(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Andy Sullivan: Editing by Paul Thomasch, Lisa Shumaker, Rosalba O’Brien and Nick Zieminski)