Georgia election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene highlights Republican turbulence

March 10 (Reuters) – Georgia voters head to the polls on Tuesday to choose the successor to Republican firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene in a closely watched U.S. House special election seen as a test of President Donald Trump’s sway in the state’s most conservative district.

Trump has endorsed Clay Fuller, a former district attorney for four northwest Georgia counties, but Colton Moore, a hard-right former state senator who calls himself “Trump’s #1 Defender,” is making a play for the president’s activist base.

With 17 candidates in the race, no-one is expected to win a majority in what is likely to be a low-turnout election, setting up an April 7 runoff between the top two finishers. That could include Democrat Shawn Harris, who has sought to peel off disillusioned Trump voters.

The race has drawn outsized national attention because it offers an early measure of Trump’s grip on his base in an area that has been a stronghold of his Make America Great Again movement. A strong showing by Fuller would underscore Trump’s continued influence, while a weaker performance could point to a loosening of his grip on MAGA.

“This is an interesting case to see how powerful Trump’s hold over the party is in that particular district,” said Kerwin Swint, a political science professor at Kennesaw State University who lives in the district at stake.

Swint said the most likely outcome was Harris finishing first without a majority, while the field of a dozen Republican candidates splits the party’s vote, leaving either Fuller or Moore to claim the second runoff spot. Swint added that Harris was almost certain to lose to the Republican in the runoff, given the district’s conservative leanings.

Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, a mostly blue-collar corridor from Atlanta’s exurbs up to the Tennessee border, vaulted into the national spotlight after Greene swept to victory in 2020 and quickly became one of MAGA’s most outspoken national figures.

Now, after Greene stepped aside in January following an acrimonious split with the president, the district’s voters are weighing what comes next for the Republican Party and how much influence the president should have in choosing her successor.

Last month, Trump visited Rome, a city at the heart of the district, bringing Fuller on stage to promote him as the chosen candidate. Yet the race remains fluid, with some Trump supporters saying they want to decide for themselves.

MAGA VS MAGA

Moore said he remains confident he can win without Trump’s endorsement, citing his relentless efforts to promote Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen and attack his perceived political enemies – actions that he believes are garnering support among the MAGA faithful.

In an interview, Moore said a lot of “DC swamp money” had flooded into the district to boost Fuller with TV ads and elsewhere, and that some “low-information voters” might cast a ballot for Fuller simply because Trump backed him.

“But the activists, the people who are most likely to get out and vote, they know we were Trump’s number one defender in Georgia,” said Moore.

The winner of the special election will serve through the end of 2026 but must immediately campaign for the full two-year term starting January 2027, beginning with a May primary that could pit many of the same contenders against each other again.

That race will be part of November’s general election, when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats will be at stake.

Tuesday’s contest will take place days after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, a move that some White House aides privately worry could pose political risks for Trump and Republicans at a time when voters have made it clear they are more concerned with domestic issues, including affordability and healthcare.

(Reporting by Nathan Layne; Editing by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell)