Fed’s Jefferson: AI-related stock gains unlikely to be dot-com boom replay

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(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Friday said he feels the current surge in stocks related to artificial intelligence is unlikely to be a replay of the late 1990s dot-com stock boom that ended in a bust, in large part because AI-related firms are well established and have actual earnings.

A recent Fed report showed some 30% of respondents felt a turn in sentiment against AI is a salient risk to the U.S. financial system and the global economy. 

Jefferson noted that investor enthusiasm for AI firms comes against a backdrop of a financial system that is “sound and resilient.”

Also different from the speculative dot-com boom, he said in remarks prepared for delivery to a Cleveland Fed conference,  is that AI firms have not so far relied heavily on debt financing. 

Limited use of leverage “may reduce the extent to which a shift in sentiment toward AI could transmit to the broader economy through credit markets,” Jefferson said.

If future investments in AI infrastructure require more debt, as some analysts forecast, “leverage in the AI sector could increase—and so could the losses if sentiment toward AI shifts. I will watch this developing trend closely.” 

Jefferson added that artificial intelligence may transform the world in a dramatic and “bumpy” way, though it is too early to tell with exactly what consequences for the labor market, inflation, and monetary policy.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )