Fed’s Barkin: Uncertainty warrants a cautious approach to monetary policy

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By Howard Schneider

RICHMOND, Virginia (Reuters) – Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday he will follow a wait-and-see approach regarding central bank interest rate policy until it is clear inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2% target.

Current uncertainty, whether driven by trade and other policy changes coming from the Trump administration or other factors, “argues for caution as we look to wrap up the inflation fight,” Barkin said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Rotary Club of Richmond.

“It’s hard to make significant monetary policy changes amid such uncertainty,” Barkin said. “So, I prefer to wait and see how this uncertainty plays out and how the economy responds.”

Rates should “stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2% target.”

The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady in a range of from 4.25% to 4.50% at its March meeting, extending a pause to rate cuts after officials trimmed a full percentage point from the policy rate last year.

The Fed’s main measure of inflation remains about half a percentage point above target, with little progress in recent months. Moreover, policy changes in Washington, from rising tariffs to stricter immigration rules, have raised concerns price pressures might build again.

Barkin said he expects data due on Friday to show that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index the Fed uses to set its 2% inflation target eased in January. The economy, meanwhile, remains “in a good place,” he said, with ongoing output growth and low unemployment.

But Barkin said the Fed needs to remain focused on getting inflation fully back to target. “It is critical we remain steadfast.”

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns)