Fed’s Barkin looks forward to more economic clarity as data flow resumes

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By Howard Schneider

WINCHESTER, Virginia (Reuters) -Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday he hopes coming data and ongoing community interviews will help clarify where the economy is heading, with U.S. central bank policymakers still facing tension between their inflation and employment goals and divided about the direction of monetary policy.

In prepared remarks at an event in Virginia and separate comments in a media interview, Barkin said available data and community interviews showed the economy to be in an “unattractive” balance, with inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and not obviously heading higher or lower, and the unemployment rate likely to increase but not by much.

With his colleagues divided over whether to cut interest rates to protect the job market or leave them where they are to guard against higher inflation, Barkin said it was easy “to imagine scenarios on both sides of that to suggest a policy response. But it is also easy to imagine not.”

“I don’t think we’re headed toward target on either of our target variables. On the other hand, I don’t think the downside is that significant,” Barkin said. “I’m not in the world of saying ‘holy cow, we’ve got to panic’ on either side.”

Barkin is not a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, but his views represent a middle ground between two vocal camps of policymakers, one arguing for rate cuts in order to guard against slow growth and a rising unemployment rate, and those who feel inflation is at risk of moving higher and don’t want to lower rates any further.

Investors have put close to even odds on whether the Fed will reduce its policy rate another quarter of a percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range at its December 9-10 meeting, or pause further rate cuts for now – with the possibility of multiple dissents in either case.

PRESSURE ON BOTH SIDES OF FED’S DUAL MANDATE

Barkin said official economic data that will now be released following the reopening of the U.S. government could help build consensus after a period in which available information has created a conflicted picture.

“On net, we are seeing pressure on both sides of our mandate, with inflation above our target and job growth down,” Barkin said in comments prepared for delivery to an economic summit at Shenandoah University. “But we also see mitigants on both sides,” with consumers pushing back on price increases and a drop in labor supply keeping the unemployment rate stable.

Credit card data and corporate earnings, for example, suggest economic growth remains healthy, he said, but it is also clear that some sectors and households are struggling. While the job market overall seems in balance, it seems less so once firms describe the situation in more detail, Barkin added.

“With the exception of skilled trades, labor feels quite available with plenty of quality applicants per opening. Recent layoff announcements by sizable firms like Amazon, Verizon, and Target give additional cause for caution,” he said.

The Fed’s current situation, which Barkin likened to docking a boat at night without a lighthouse, “is not a particularly comfortable place to be,” he said. “I am looking forward to some illumination” as the official data flow resumes.

“I think we have a lot to learn between now and then.”

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)