Factbox-US holiday sales growth to be muted this year, forecasts show

(Reuters) -U.S. retailers are bracing for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts.

The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers’ annual sales.

In recent weeks, several companies have issued mixed earnings forecasts heading into the season. While Walmart and Macy’s raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations.

Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys:

SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS

PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers

ers projected the are expected to

steepest spend about $1,552

year-over-year drop per person on

in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3%

spending since the from last year.

pandemic, primarily

fueled by Gen Z

shoppers pulling

back amid economic

uncertainty.

Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during

are expected to the November

grow at their 2025-January 2026

slowest pace since period are expected

the pandemic. to rise between

A 2.9% and 3.4%,

survey conducted by compared with a

Deloitte showed the 4.2% increase last

least optimistic year, marking the

outlook on economic slowest growth

sentiment since the since the 2018-2019

firm started season.

tracking it in E-commerce sales

1997.  are projected to

increase between 7%

The and 9% during the

survey also said season,

consumers expect to compared with last

reduce their year’s 8% growth.

spending on both In-store sales are

retail goods and projected to rise

experiences, with between 2% and

nearly all 2.2%, compared to a

generations and 3.4% growth in

income groups 2024.

planning to pull

back on spending Consumers are

this season, except expected to spend

for Gen X shoppers. an average of

$1,595, down 10%

from last year,

according to a

survey of 4,270

consumers conducted

online by

an

independent

research company

and fielded between

August 27 and

September 5.

77% of

surveyed consumers

expect higher

prices on holiday

items, and 57%

expect the economy

to weaken in 2026,

with 56% of

respondents being

concerned about a

potential recession

in the next six

months.

Salesforce The software Online spending is

company projects a expected to rise

slower growth in 2.1% to $288

online spending billion, lower than

between November 1 a 4% increase in

and December 31. the same period

last year. 

Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are

Economics Institute expected to rise

expects U.S. 3.6% between

holiday sales November 1 and

growth to moderate December 24 this

this year. Still, year, compared to a

it will be driven 4.1% growth in the

by promotions, as same period last

consumers seek the year.

best value for Online sales are

their money amid expected to jump

broader 7.9% this holiday

macroeconomic season, compared to

uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last

year.

In-store sales are

projected to grow

2.3%. It rose 2.8%

in the 2024 holiday

season.

Adobe Analytics U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales

sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to

slower pace this $253.4 billion

year, Adobe between November 1

Analytics projects, and December 31,

as macroeconomic compared with an

uncertainty 8.7% rise last

continues to year.

pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales

spending. is expected to rise

6.3% to $14.2

billion.

Consumer spending

between October 7

and October 8 is

expected to be $9

billion, a 6.2%

increase compared

with last year, as

the data firm

expects shoppers to

kick off some of

their early holiday

purchases during

Amazon’s October

Big Deal Days.

EY-Parthenon Ernst & Young’s U.S. holiday retail

consulting firm sales in the

forecasts a modest November-December

rise in holiday 2025 shopping

sales this year, season are expected

driven mainly by to rise 2.5%,

higher prices due compared with a

to inflation. While 4.2% increase last

higher-income year, EY-Parthenon

households are forecast shows.

largely unaffected The

by price increases, sales growth at

spending from 2.5% is expected to

middle-and be the slowest

lower-income since 2018, when it

consumers is grew 2.4%.

expected to be

constrained due to While

slower income total sales are

growth and rising expected to cross

credit dependency, $1 trillion, gains

the firm says. are likely to be

driven by higher

prices, compared

with last year,

when volume growth

made up about 85%

of sales growth.

(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt and Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)