Factbox-How the war over US congressional redistricting is playing out, state by state

By Joseph Ax

Feb 20 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that Republican-led states redraw their congressional maps to help his party retain control of the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections has triggered a national battle over redistricting.

The fight began when Republicans in Texas, the most populous Republican-led state, approved a rare mid-decade new congressional map aimed at flipping seats in the House of Representatives now occupied by Democrats. California, the most populous Democratic-led state, responded with its own redistricting effort targeting five Republican-held districts. Other states, led by both Republicans and Democrats, have followed suit.

While Republicans initially appeared to hold an advantage, Democratic-led states have narrowed the gap. Democrats need to flip only three Republican seats this year to win a House majority, so every district could prove pivotal. Here is how the conflict is unfolding across the country:

REPUBLICAN GAINS

TEXAS – UP TO FIVE SEATS

The U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way in early December for a new Republican-backed map that targets five Democratic-held seats. The court’s 6-3 decision, with the three liberal justices dissenting, put on hold a lower court ruling that had concluded the map likely discriminated against minority voters.

Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed the map into law in August. Weeks earlier, more than 50 Democratic lawmakers fled the state, temporarily preventing a vote, but ultimately returned. Republicans already control 25 of Texas’ 38 seats under a Republican-drawn map from 2021.

MISSOURI – ONE SEAT

Republican Governor Mike Kehoe signed a new map into law in September that dismantled a Democratic-held seat based in Kansas City, giving his party the advantage in seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. Opponents are attempting to force a voter referendum on the map, while several organizations have filed lawsuits challenging its legality.

OHIO – UP TO TWO SEATS

A provision in the state constitution required a new map for 2026 because the previous one was approved with no Democratic votes. The state’s redistricting commission, which includes five Republicans and two Democrats, unanimously approved a map in October that boosts Republican chances of flipping two Democratic-held seats. Republicans hold 10 of the state’s 15 seats.

NORTH CAROLINA – ONE SEAT

The state legislature’s Republican majority approved a new map in October designed to flip a Democratic seat, which would give Republicans control of 11 of the state’s 14 U.S. House seats despite its status as a divided swing state. Under state law, Democratic Governor Josh Stein had no say in the process.     

FLORIDA – POSSIBLY UP TO FIVE SEATS

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has called a special legislative session in late April to take up redistricting, an effort analysts say could target three to five Democratic incumbents.

It is not clear whether there is enough support in the Republican-controlled legislature to redraw the state’s U.S. House districts. There are also legal obstacles.

Republicans already control 20 of the state’s 28 seats, after DeSantis and the legislature passed a new map in 2022 that flipped four Democratic seats. 

INDIANA – EFFORT FAILED

Indiana’s Republican-controlled Senate rejected a new map aimed at flipping the state’s only two Democratic House seats, a rare rebuke to Trump from members of his own party. Republicans control seven of the state’s nine U.S. House seats.

KANSAS – EFFORT FAILED

Kansas Republicans abandoned a Trump-backed effort to redraw the state’s congressional map after the state House speaker said there was not enough support in his chamber to overcome a veto threat from Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. Republicans hold three of the state’s four U.S. House seats.

DEMOCRATIC GAINS

CALIFORNIA – UP TO FIVE SEATS

Voters overwhelmingly approved a new map backed by Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic lawmakers, designed to flip as many as five Republican-held seats, in direct response to Texas. Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 districts.

VIRGINIA – POSSIBLY UP TO FOUR SEATS

The Democratic-controlled state legislature in January approved a constitutional amendment that would pave the way for a new congressional map aimed at flipping four Republican seats. The state’s voters must first approve the amendment at a special election on April 21.

A Virginia judge blocked the effort in late January, agreeing with Republicans that the process Democrats used to approve the amendment was invalid. Democrats appealed the ruling to the state Supreme Court, which ruled the April referendum could still take place while the matter is pending.

The same judge, Tazewell Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley Jr., again blocked the referendum on February 19, after Republicans filed a separate challenge arguing the ballot measure’s timing and wording violated the law. It remains to be seen whether the state Supreme Court will again step in.

Democrats, who hold six of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats, have proposed a new map intended to create a 10-1 advantage in November.

UTAH – ONE SEAT

A state judge threw out a Republican-drawn map as illegally partisan and instead implemented an alternative that is likely to flip one of the state’s four Republican-held seats to Democrats.

MARYLAND – EFFORT STALLED

Democrats in the state House advanced a new map on February 2 that targeted the state’s only Republican U.S. representative, a move championed by Democratic Governor Wes Moore. Democrats hold seven of the state’s eight House districts.

But the state Senate president said there is not enough support in his chamber and that he does not plan to hold a vote on the bill, stalling the legislation.

NEW YORK – POSSIBLY ONE SEAT

A New York judge in January ordered the state’s independent redistricting commission to redraw a Republican-held congressional district centered on New York City’s borough of Staten Island, potentially giving Democrats a chance to flip the seat in November.

Republicans appealed the ruling, which found the district’s current lines unconstitutionally harm minority voters. A mid-level appeals court on February 19 rejected that challenge and ordered the state’s redistricting commission to draw a new map.

Democrats currently hold 19 of the state’s 26 seats.

(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Paul Thomasch, Jonathan Oatis and Lisa Shumaker)