Factbox-Brokerages expect global growth to slow in late 2025 on tariffs, geopolitical tensions

(Reuters) -Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan and Morgan Stanley, have forecast slower global growth for late 2025 due to economic uncertainty fueled by tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. economy is expected to grow between 1% and 2% this year, according to estimates from leading brokerages, as tariffs push prices higher, while softening labor markets help avoid a potential wage-price spiral.

Meanwhile, central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, are on pause, waiting to see how the situation plays out.

Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, and the performance of major asset classes in 2025. 

U.S. recession forecasts:

Brokerage Recession Probability

Goldman Sachs 30%

J.P.Morgan 40%

Barclays No recession

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:  

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. EUR/USD   USD/JP USD/CNY

target 10-year Y

yield  

target  

UBS Global 5300 3.80% 1.23 130 7.60

Research

Goldman 4.35% 1.20 135 7 (next

Sachs (next 12 (next 12 12

6600 months) months) months)

UBS Global 6200 4.00% 1.16 140 7.10(De

Wealth (Dec-25) (Dec-25) c-25)

Management

Wells Fargo 5900-61 4.00%-4.5 1.08-1.1 144-148  

Investment 00 0% 2

Institute

Societe 6750 4.50% 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale (Q4’25)

Deutsche 6550 4.65% 1.10  145 7.35

Bank (Q4’25)

Nomura   4.15% 1.03 135 6.93

Morgan 6500 4% 1.08 141 7.60

Stanley  (Q4’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% 1.14 140 7.60

(Q3’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25)

BofA Global 4.50% 1.17 155 7.30

Research

6300

Wells Fargo   0.98 154 7.60

4.20% (Q4’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25)

BMO Capital 6100        

Markets

Jefferies 5300 4.43%      

Barclays 6050 4.00% 1.06 144 7.50

(Q4’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25)

Piper 6600        

Sandler

Berenberg   4.90% 140 7.30

1.16

BNP   4.65% 1.00 156  

Paribas  (Q4’25) (Q4’25) (Q4’25)

Canaccord 6325        

Genuity

Citigroup 6,300 4.20% 1.05 139  

(Q4’25)

ING     1.02 160 7.35

HSBC 5,600        

Evercore 6800        

ISI

Peel Hunt   4.20% 1.11    

(Q4’25)

RBC Capital 5730 4%      

Markets  

Oppenheimer 5950        

Asset

Management 

Real GDP Growth:    

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

UBS Global 2.5% 1.4% 3.4% 0.7% 0.8%  6% 

Research

Goldman 2.4% 1.6% 4.6% 1.0% 1.2% 6.6%

Sachs

Barclays 2.7% 1.2% 4.0% 0.8% 1.1% 6.9%

Morgan 2.9% 1.5% 4.5% 1.0% 0.8% 6.4% 

Stanley

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 1.0% 4.8% 0.8% 0.7% 6.0%

UBS Global 2.7% 1.6% 4.0% 0.7% 0.8% 6.0%

Wealth

Management

Wells Fargo 2.7% 1.6% 4.5% 0.9% 0.8% 5.9%

Societe 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%  

Generale

Citigroup  2.4% 1.4% 4.7% 0.8% 2.0% 6.7%

Nomura 2.9% 1.4% 4.5% 1.4% 1.1% 6.6%

BofA Global 1.6% 4.7% 0.9% 1.1% 6.4%

Research

3.0%

Deutsche 2.9% 1.6% 4.7% 0.8% 1.2% 6.5%

Bank

Wells Fargo 2.1% 1.0%   0.9%    

Investment

Institute

Berenberg 2.3% 1.5% 4.4% 1.0% 1.2% 6.5%

BNP Paribas   2.1% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1% 6.2%

(March

2026)

Peel Hunt   1.5% 4.5% 0.9% 1.1% 6.3%

ING   2.0% 4.7% 0.7% 1.4%  

Jefferies   2.4%        

(Q4/Q4

)

Standard 1.50% 4.8% 6.6%

Chartered

1% 1.10%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Shounak Dasgupta and Devika Syamnath)