HSBC raises 2026 Brent price forecast to $95 per barrel

May 12 (Reuters) – HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $95 a barrel last week, citing a longer effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Our base case now assumes that Hormuz traffic and Gulf output gradually restart from mid‑June, and a return to near‑normal system-level production and flows by end‑3Q26,” HSBC said in a note dated May 6.

It added that a longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post‑war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long‑term price anchor.

In HSBC’s scenario-based assumptions, the bank sees Brent averaging around $110 a barrel in 2026 and $85 a barrel in 2027 if a deal is only reached towards late summer but oil prices periodically correct on headlines.

The bank said that in a “pessimistic” scenario where a comprehensive deal takes around six months, leaving flows heavily constrained, Brent would average $120 per barrel in 2026 and $95 per barrel in 2027.

Oil prices rose by more than 3% on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. [O/R]

Brokerage/ Brent WTI  Forecasts Price

Agency as of  Targets

  2026 2027 2026 202    

7

Goldman $90 ($83 $85 $83 $80 April 26, Raises 4Q

Sachs previousl ($80 ($78 ($7 2026 2026

y) previo previ 5 Brent, WTI

usly) ously pre forecast

) vio to $90/$83

usl

y)

Citi $91 $75 $83 $70 April 26, Raises

2026 Brent

price

forecast

to

$110/bbl

in Q2’26,

$95/bbl in

Q3’26 and

$80/bbl in

Q4’26

ANZ $92 $76 $88 $76 April 9,  

2026

UBS – – – – April 13, Expects

2026 prices 

to trade

>$150/bbl

if flows

through

Hormuz

remain

disrupted.

Sees Brent

at

$100/bbl

by

end-June

2026, $95

by

end-Sept,

$90 by

end-Dec

Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27  If the war

3 .50 continues

until end

of June,

oil prices

may rise

to $200

 

Morgan – $80 – – March 24, Expects

Stanley ($70 2026 Brent

previo prices to

usly) remain

above

$80/bbl

for the

rest of

2026

J.P. – $72 – – March 20, Expects

Morgan 2026 Brent

prices

averaging

$100/bbl 

in Q2’26,

$90/bbl in

Q3’26 and

$80/bbl in

Q4’26

Standard $85.50         Expects

Chartered ($70 Brent to

previousl average

y) $78/bbl in

Q1’26, and

$98/bbl in

Q2’26

BofA $77.50 $66 – $61 March 16, Expects

($61 ($62 ($5 2026 Brent to

previousl previo 9 average

y) usly) pre $80/bbl in

vio Q2’26, but

usl average

y) $76/bbl in

Q3’26

Barclays $100 – – – May 1 If the

(from $85 current

previousl situation

y) continues

through

the end of

May,

forward-im

plied 2026

Brent

should

reprice to

$110/b

BMI $70 ($67 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects

previousl 2026 Brent to

y) average

$67/bbl

and

$69/bbl in

Q3’26 and

Q4’26,

respective

ly.

HSBC $95 ($80 $75 – – May 06,  

previousl ($70 2026

y) previo

usly)

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier)