Explainer-Who are the players deciding Cuba’s future amid talks with US?

HAVANA, March 27 (Reuters) – Cuba and the United States have said they are engaged in bilateral talks at a time of high tension, with President Donald Trump imposing a de facto oil blockade that has further pressured the Communist government to come to the table.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has insisted the talks take place “on the basis of equality” and mutual respect, but Trump has issued a series of threatening statements, including that he can do “anything I want” with Cuba, a sovereign neighbor.

Even so, Trump administration sources have leaked information to the media that some kind of deal could be made. The New ​York Times, citing four people familiar with the talks, said Washington was seeking to push Diaz-Canel from power. In exchange, the U.S. might ease sanctions and refrain from taking any action against the Castro family, the reports said.

Following are brief profiles of the players who may have the most sway over the future of the Communist-ruled country.

U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

Trump has issued a series of threatening comments in recent weeks, including that he expected to have the “honor” of “taking Cuba.” After launching military strikes on Iran, he said, “We’re talking to Cuba, but we’re going to do Iran before Cuba.”

With U.S. forces engaged in Iran, the top general overseeing American forces in Latin America told a Senate hearing the U.S. military is not rehearsing for an invasion of Cuba or actively preparing to militarily take over the island.

The deal sought by the U.S., according to the Times report and a similar one from USA Today, would resemble what has happened in Venezuela, where the United States deposed President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. Rather than attempt to install an opposition government, Trump has cooperated with acting President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s former vice president who took power when U.S. forces ​whisked away Maduro in an early-​morning raid.

US SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO

Trump has said Rubio, a Cuban American who holds the dual titles of Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, is leading discussions with Cuban representatives.

Rubio, widely mentioned as a possible presidential contender in 2028, was born in Miami and raised in the culture of the Cuban diaspora, which has always shown animosity toward the Cuban revolution. Any deal that leaves the Communist Party in power and fails to exact a price from the Castros may be poorly received in South Florida. 

But if Rubio’s plan is to depose the Cuban government, it would risk violence and the possibility of massive Cuban migration. Moreover, Cuba’s government cooperates in the battle against drug trafficking. A precipitous end to the Cuban government would create an opportunity for organized crime in a country with 5,746 km (3,570 miles) of coastline as close as 90 miles (150 km) from U.S. shores.

RAUL CASTRO

Raul Castro, 94, fought alongside his older brother Fidel in the revolution that toppled a U.S. ally in 1959 and served as his brother’s loyal defense minister for decades. He ascended to the presidency, first on an interim basis when Fidel became ill in 2006, then definitively when Fidel retired in 2008. With Fidel’s death in 2016, Raul assumed the mantle as the single unifying leader among those loyal to the Cuban revolution.

He still wields influence even after stepping down as president in 2018 and as leader of the Communist Party in 2021, since then carrying the honorific title army general. 

When Diaz-Canel announced to the nation that Cuba had entered talks with the U.S., he said they were led by Castro and himself. Diaz-Canel has repeatedly spoken of how Castro is involved in matters of state.

In December 2025, as Cuba’s Communist Party prepared to choose Diaz-Canel’s successor at an all-important party congress this year, Castro proposed postponing the congress indefinitely, given Cuba’s economic crisis. In a nod toward his continuing influence, the party’s Central Committee approved the proposal unanimously. 

MIGUEL DIAZ-CANEL

Cuba’s president and leader of the Communist Party became the first non-Castro to lead the government since 1959 when he ascended to the presidency in 2018.

Early on he was dealt a series of major setbacks, including the rise of Trump, who reversed the U.S. policy of rapprochement with Cuba established by his predecessor Barack Obama.

Then, the coronavirus pandemic struck in 2020, smothering Cuba’s all-important tourist industry at a time when the government was investing billions of dollars in shiny new hotels, which are now empty.

However, it was Diaz-Canel’s response to a massive popular uprising that severely damaged his public image. 

After Cubans spontaneously broke into protests across the country on July 11, 2021, shaking the Communist government unlike any event in decades, Cuban security forces quickly crushed the revolt, after Diaz-Canel urged government loyalists to confront the protesters. 

“The combat order has been given!”  said Diaz-Canel, 65.

The repression that followed, combined with a mounting economic crisis, has undermined Diaz-Canel’s image.

Any Cuban capitulation – especially one that would have Diaz-Canel step aside with two years left as president and five years to go as party leader – would be unprecedented. 

RAUL GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ CASTRO

Known as “El Cangrejo,” or “The Crab,” Rodriguez Castro, 41, is widely seen as one of the closest confidants of his grandfather, Raul Castro. As former bodyguard to his grandfather, he was often at his side throughout his presidency. He has been reported to hold the rank of lieutenant colonel.

The Cuban government did not respond to a query about Rodriguez Castro’s biography or possible role in negotiations.

Axios, citing three unnamed sources, reported on February 18 that Rodriguez Castro was in secret talks with Rubio. The Miami Herald, citing unnamed sources, reported on February 26 that officials close to Rubio met with Rodriguez Castro on the sidelines of a regional Caribbean Community conference in St. Kitts and Nevis.

Rodriguez Castro is the son of Raul’s daughter Deborah Castro Espin and the late General Luis Alberto Rodriguez Lopez-Calleja, who was head of the military business conglomerate GAESA. 

During Raul Castro’s presidency, GAESA assumed control of the state’s most important businesses including hotels, banking, logistics and retail. Rodriguez Lopez-Calleja died of a heart attack in 2022 at age 62. Media reports suggest Rodriguez Castro may have taken a role in his late father’s company.

That lineage places Rodriguez Castro at the intersection of Cuba’s political leadership and its most powerful economic institution, making him a potentially significant go-between for Washington.

Rodriguez Castro has never spoken publicly nor given interviews.

MANUEL MARRERO

Named prime minister by Diaz-Canel in 2019, and ratified by the National Assembly, Marrero was elevated to the Politburo, the elite committee running the Communist Party, in 2021, putting him on the short list of possible successors to Diaz-Canel.

A former architectural engineer, Marrero, 62, held the post of tourism minister from 2004 to 2019. 

According to EcuRed, Cuba’s official online encyclopedia, Marrero was also a former president of Grupo Gaviota, the tourism subsidiary of GAESA, where he helped build two resorts. 

OSCAR PEREZ-OLIVA FRAGA

Widely seen as a rising star because of a rapidly growing portfolio since becoming foreign trade minister in 2024, he added the titles of deputy prime minister and member of the National Assembly in 2025. 

He is also related to the Castro brothers as his maternal grandmother, Angela Castro, was a sister to Fidel and Raul Castro, giving him cachet as a Castro but without the heavy baggage of carrying the surname.

When Cuba rolled out a plan to draw investment from Cuban nationals living abroad, Perez-Oliva Fraga was given generous airtime on government-controlled television to explain the policy.

Analysts have speculated that Perez-Oliva Fraga might play a role similar to that of Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. 

(Reporting by Daniel Trotta in Havana; Editing by Christian Plumb, Lisa Shumaker and Will Dunham)