Explainer-What’s behind Nigeria’s latest school kidnappings, church attack?

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By MacDonald Dzirutwe and Ben Ezeamalu

LAGOS (Reuters) -Nigeria is under renewed global scrutiny after gunmen abducted more than 300 students from a Catholic school in the northwest, the second major attack this week following a deadly assault on a church service.

The incidents have piled more pressure on the Nigerian government following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of military action over the alleged persecution of Christians in the West African nation. 

Here are key points about the attacks and Nigeria’s security situation.

WHO IS BEHIND THE LATEST ATTACKS?

If confirmed, Friday’s attack on St Mary’s School in Niger state – roughly the size of Serbia – would be Nigeria’s worst school abduction since the kidnapping of 276 Chibok girls by Boko Haram in the northeast in 2014. 

No one has publicly claimed responsibility for the latest assaults, although the perpetrators of the church raid on Tuesday appear to belong to an armed gang motivated by ransom money.

The attacks are indiscriminate and follow a similar pattern. Gangs known locally as bandits arrive, shoot sporadically to scare people, abduct victims and vanish into nearby forests.

On Monday, armed men stormed a predominantly Muslim girls school in northwest Kebbi state and seized 25 students. 

Also on Monday, another armed gang abducted 64 people, including women and children, from their homes in Zamfara state, which borders Kebbi.

On Tuesday, gunmen attacked the Christ Apostolic Church in central Kwara state, killing two people and abducting 38 worshippers, according to a church official. 

The official said the gunmen had issued a ransom demand of 100 million naira (roughly $69,000) per worshipper.

Kebbi, Kwara and Niger states border one another.

This week’s attacks prompted Nigerian President Bola Tinubu to cancel trips to South Africa and Angola, where he was due to attend a G20 summit and an African Union-European Union summit.

Security experts say such attacks and kidnappings are motivated by money, and schools are easy targets as they lack adequate security. Also, parents are more prepared to raise ransoms to bring back their children.

“There’s just a lot of money to be made in this enterprise,” said Ikemesit Effiong, senior partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence consultancy. 

WHERE ARE THE ATTACK HOTSPOTS IN NIGERIA?

Most of northern Nigeria, covering over 20 of the country’s 36 states, is blanketed by insecurity, disrupting daily lives, including travel and farming.

In the northwest, armed gangs without any known religious or political motives carry out ransom kidnappings and hide in forests. Nigeria has vast, remote ungoverned spaces where many more attacks go unreported.

To the northeast, ultra-hardline Islamist militant groups Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) are waging an insurgency that has created Nigeria’s largest humanitarian crisis, displacing over two million people and killing tens of thousands over 15 years. ISWAP captured and executed an army general on November 14.

In food-producing central Nigeria, where the mostly Muslim north meets the largely Christian south, there are deadly clashes over religion, ethnicity and access to land and water.

ARE THE ATTACKS AIMED AT CHRISTIANS?

Nnamdi Obasi, senior adviser at International Crisis Group, said there had been numerous incidents of faith-based violence, including in the central belt and the northeast, but Muslims have suffered just as much as Christians.

Nigeria says claims that Christians face persecution misrepresent the complex security situation and do not take into account efforts to safeguard religious freedom.

Ethnic and religious tensions often flare in the country of 230 million people and around 200 ethnic groups.

“Of course, many Nigerians believe successive governments over the years could have done better in countering armed groups, ending atrocities and sanctioning perpetrators,” said Obasi. 

“But there is no credible evidence that the government and its security forces, led by both Christians and Muslims, have been complicit in violence against any particular faith group.” 

A senior U.S. State Department official said on Thursday that the U.S. was considering actions such as sanctions and Pentagon engagement on counter-terrorism as part of a plan to compel the Nigerian government to better protect Christian communities and religious freedom. 

HOW IS THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT RESPONDING?

Nigeria’s military, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, is leading the fight against armed groups, while in the northwest, traditional leaders often seek peace through talks with bandit gangs.

The military is stretched and the bandits and insurgents are scattered over a vast area.

In August, Nigeria’s Air Force said its airstrikes killed nearly 600 insurgents. But on the ground, militants continue with attacks.    

Data from U.S. crisis-monitoring group ACLED shows there were over 1,923 attacks against civilians in Nigeria this year, killing more than 3,000 people. 

At least six northern states have ordered the closure of schools fearing attacks.

(Editing by William Maclean and Mark Potter)