Exclusive-Top European spies sceptical US will clinch Ukraine peace deal this year

By Tom Balmforth, Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay

MUNICH, Feb 19 (Reuters) – European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump’s assertions that U.S.-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal “reasonably close”.

The heads of five European spy agencies, who spoke to Reuters in recent days on condition of anonymity, said Russia did not want to end the war quickly. Four of them said Moscow was using the talks with the U.S. to push for sanctions relief and business deals.

The talks – the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week – are “negotiation theatre”, one European intelligence chief said.

The remarks point to a striking gulf in thinking between European capitals and the White House, which Ukraine says wants to clinch a peace agreement by June ahead of the U.S. congressional mid-term elections in November. Trump says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to make a deal.

“Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” one of the European intelligence chiefs said. These include the removal of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy and for Ukraine to become a “neutral” buffer to the West.

The main issue, a second intelligence chief said, is that Russia neither wants nor needs a quick peace and its economy is “not on the verge of collapse”.

While the intelligence chiefs did not say how they obtained their information, their services use human sources, intercepted communications and various other means. All said they consider Russia a priority target for intelligence gathering.

Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.

Putin says he is ready for peace but on his terms. Russian officials say European governments have repeatedly been wrong in their assessments of Russia.  

INTENSE DIPLOMACY

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met this week for their third U.S.-mediated meeting of 2026 without any breakthrough on key sticking points, including territory.

After the meetings, Zelenskiy appeared frustrated by a lack of meaningful progress and suggested the Russians were more interested in discussing the conflict’s historical roots than reaching a near-term agreement.

“I don’t need historical shit to end this war and move to diplomacy. Because it’s just a delay tactic,” he wrote on X on Thursday.

Moscow wants Kyiv to withdraw its forces from the remaining 20% of the eastern Donetsk region that Russia does not control, something Ukraine refuses to do.

The second spy chief said Russia could be satisfied territorially if it obtained the rest of Donetsk, but that would not fulfil its objective of overthrowing Zelenskiy’s pro-Western government.

A third intelligence chief said there was a misplaced belief that Ukraine ceding Donetsk would quickly lead to a peace deal.

“In the case of the Russians getting these concessions, I (think) that this is maybe the beginning of actual negotiations,” the official said, predicting Russia would then make further demands.

The spy chief, without providing evidence, also expressed concern over the “very limited” level of skill in negotiating with Russia across the West, including on the European side, which Zelenskiy says should have an active role in the talks.

The U.S. side is led by Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer and long-time friend of Trump, and Jared Kushner, the U.S. president’s son-in-law.

Both men have worked on other conflicts on Trump’s behalf, but neither are trained diplomats nor do they have any specific expertise on Russia or Ukraine.

In response to a request for comment, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said anonymous critics had done nothing to help end the war in Ukraine. “President Trump and his team have done more than anyone to bring both sides together to stop the killing and deliver a peace deal.”

‘VERY HIGH RISKS’

Two of the officials said Moscow was trying to separate the talks into two different tracks – one focused on the war and a second focused on bilateral deals with the U.S. that would include sanctions relief for Russia.

Zelenskiy said his intelligence services have told him that U.S. and Russian negotiators have been discussing bilateral cooperation deals worth as much as $12 trillion that were proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

The European officials did not provide details on these discussions, though Dmitriev himself wrote on X on Wednesday that the “portfolio of potential US-Russia projects is over $14 trillion.”

The second spy chief said the offer was designed to appeal both to Trump and to Russian oligarchs who have not profited from the war because of sanctions but whose loyalty Putin needs to retain as Russia’s economy hits stiffening headwinds.

The official said that ultimately Russia was a “resilient society” that could endure hardship.

However, the third official said Russia faced “very high” financial risks in the second half of 2026, citing among other factors Moscow’s limited access to capital markets due to sanctions and high borrowing costs.

Some analysts say Russia’s economy is somewhere between stagnation and recession after growing just 1% last year.

The central bank’s key interest rate, which shapes borrowing costs, stands at 15.5%. The liquid part of Russia’s “rainy day” fund that the government uses to cover its budget deficit has more than halved since the 2022 invasion.

(Reporting by Tom Balmforth and Gram Slattery in Munich; Editing by Gareth Jones)