Exclusive-Russia’s monthly oil and gas revenue poised to hit lowest since August 2020

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MOSCOW, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Russian state oil and gas revenue in December is likely to almost halve from a year earlier to 410 billion roubles ($5.17 billion) as a result of lower crude prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Friday.

Oil and gas revenue is the leading source of cash for the Kremlin, making up a quarter of federal budget proceeds that have been drained by heavy defence and security spending since Russia began its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022.

For the entire year, the revenue is set to fall by almost a quarter to 8.44 trillion roubles, below the Finance Ministry’s 8.65 trillion rouble forecast, according to calculations based on data from industry sources and official statistics on production, refining and supplies.

Russia reported its lowest monthly oil and gas revenue of 405 billion roubles in August 2020, when oil prices tumbled during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sergei Konygin, a senior analyst at Moscow-based investment bank Sinara, said that the budget deficit of 1.6 trillion roubles expected in December will be covered by state bonds, but 2026 will be more difficult.

“Next year is a big challenge to the budget as it was formed under an optimistic scenario of oil at $59 (per barrel) and the rouble at 92 (per dollar),” he said.

The Russian oil price used for taxation purposes decreased in November by 16.4% from October to $44.87 a barrel while the rouble strengthened to 80.35 per dollar.

Konygin expects amendments to the budget next spring to make use of the National Wealth Fund to address the deficit under a lower assumed price of oil.

Ukraine and its Western backers have repeatedly said they want to curb Russian oil revenue to force the world’s second-largest oil exporter to end the war in Ukraine.

The Finance Ministry had initially expected 10.94 trillion roubles in oil and gas revenue this year but made a downward revision in October to account for global oil prices that have been driven lower by concern over a supply glut.

The Finance Ministry will publish its oil and gas revenue estimates for December on January 14.

($1 = 79.3000 roubles)

(Reporting by ReutersEditing by Tomasz Janowski and David Goodman)