Costa Rica’s ruling party heads for victory in February elections, poll shows

By Alvaro Murillo

SAN JOSE, Jan 21 (Reuters) – Costa Rica’s ruling party candidate poised to win the February 1 presidential election in the first round, with 40% voter support that could also hand her party a legislative majority for the 2026–2030 term, a University of Costa Rica poll showed.

Laura Fernandez, a former minister loyal to President Rodrigo Chaves who has pledged policy “continuity” and to appoint him to a senior role, saw her support rise between December and January to the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, according to the poll released on Wednesday.

Other recent private polls have shown similar results for the 39-year-old political scientist, who has capitalized on Chaves’ popularity. He holds 58% approval despite being barred by law from seeking consecutive reelection, according to the poll by the university’s Center for Research and Political Studies.

The survey was conducted from January 12–16, with a margin of error of three percentage points.

Opposition candidates have stalled, including frontrunner Alvaro Ramos, an economist polling at just 8%. The weak support signals trouble for his center-left National Liberation Party (PLN), which represents the traditional politics Chaves vowed to upend with his “peaceful revolution” against elites.

Chaves faces dozens of complaints at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for allegedly interfering illegally in the campaign.

He has urged voters to continue his policies and expand the ruling party’s power in the Legislative Assembly to push through deep reforms, including constitutional changes – moves that have alarmed opposition groups who accuse him of authoritarian tendencies.

Fernandez has pledged to follow Chaves’ lead and crack down harder on crime, the country’s top concern amid a homicide wave driven largely by drug gang violence.

The ruling movement has highlighted strong economic indicators under Chaves and touted his ties to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whom he calls “an international security reference,” and to U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, which he described as a “favorite partner” on anti-narcotics cooperation.

More than 3.7 million Costa Ricans are eligible to vote in the 12-hour election day. Electoral authorities have urged turnout after 40% abstention in 2022, a lack of participation that analysts say could help the ruling party clinch a first-round victory.

(Reporting by Alvaro Murillo; Editing by Ros Russell)