Colombia inflation seen at 0.23% in September; 2025 and 2026 forecasts rise again: Reuters poll

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By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Inflation in Colombia likely stabilized in September compared with the same month last year, but expectations for the remainder of this year and for 2026 have risen again, moving further from the central bank’s target, a Reuters poll revealed on Tuesday.

According to the median forecast of 21 analysts, consumer prices in September are expected to rise by 0.23%. This is in line with the 0.24% increase in September of last year and up from 0.19% in August of this year. 

Forecasts for the month ranged from 0.14% to 0.34%.

September’s inflation was likely driven by a rise in the prices of housing rentals, public utilities, food, education and hotel and restaurant services, analysts said.

“A rebound is expected in the price of public utilities, especially gas, while electricity prices could end their recent streak of declines,” said Jackeline Pirajan, chief analyst for Scotiabank in Colombia. “A contribution from education-related items is also expected.”

If the poll’s median forecast is met, 12-month inflation through September would stand at 5.10%. This rate is stable compared with the period ending in August, but remains far from the central bank’s 3% target.

National statistics agency DANE will publish its official September inflation report on October 7.

According to the survey, year-end inflation expectations for 2025 have increased to 5.03% from 4.95% in the previous poll, which would mark the fifth consecutive year the target has been missed.

For the end of 2026, inflation expectations increased to 4.05% from 3.99% in the last survey, while the forecast for the end of 2027 remained stable at 3.60%.

Persistent consumer price pressures have led the central bank to hold its benchmark interest rate at 9.25% since April, the only month this year it was lowered.

A Reuters poll earlier this week indicated the monetary authority will likely hold the rate steady again later on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra in BogotaEditing by Matthew Lewis)