Colombia inflation likely slowed in May, but up in full-year 2025: Reuters poll

Audio By Carbonatix

Enlarge

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s consumer price increases likely slowed slightly in May thanks to reduced pressure on food costs and the appreciation of the peso currency, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday, though inflation expectations for 2025 overall grew.

According to the median estimate of the 19 analysts surveyed, inflation likely rose 0.4% in May, below the 0.66% rise in April.

Projections ranged between 0.15% and 0.54%.

“During May there were pressures on services associated with the continued indexation of rents, also of regulated goods, especially public services,” said Carlos Alberto Velasquez, head of economic investigations at Alianza brokerage.

“However, pressures on food and goods were kept contained in response to the favorable behavior of the exchange rate,” he added, referring to the 2.86% appreciation of the peso against the dollar.

If analysts’ median prediction is met, 12-month inflation through May will have reached 5.12%, well above the central bank’s long-term target of 3%.

Inflation expectations for the close of this year were up in the poll to 4.8%, from 4.55% in the previous survey, which would mark the fifth consecutive year of annual inflation being above the target.

Expectations for the close of 2026 were also up in the poll, to 3.75%, from 3.61% in the previous survey.

Inflation was a top factor in the April decision by Colombia’s central bank board to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.25%, surprising the market.

Inflation figures for May will be published on June 9.

(Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra in Bogota; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Matthew Lewis)