Cheniere boosts forecast as Middle East gas disruptions buoy demand for US LNG

By Pranav Mathur and Curtis Williams

Oct 29 (Reuters) – Cheniere Energy raised its full-year earnings forecast on Thursday, driven by higher LNG export volumes as Middle East supply disruptions pushed buyers toward US shipments.

Shares of the largest US LNG exporter rose 5% as the company also raised its quarterly dividend by more than 12% to 62.5 cents per share.

“Think of 2026 as a banner year … (and) it’s not going to be too far off in 27,” CFO Zach Davis said on an earnings call as he predicted the strong performance would continue into the coming year.

The US has solidified its position as the world’s largest LNG exporter, helped by a more favorable regulatory environment, cheap domestic shale gas, stronger European demand to replace Russian pipeline supplies and flexible contracts that allow buyers to send US cargoes to higher-margin markets.

EVEN GULF EXPORTERS LOCK IN US SUPPLIES

The Iran war has also disrupted gas supplies from Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and raised concerns over shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting buyers to reassess Gulf exposure and turn to US LNG supplies.

Earlier this month, QatarEnergy agreed to buy up to 4 million metric tons of LNG a year from Cheniere from the early 2030s through 2054, a sign that even major Gulf exporters are locking in US supply to serve their customers.

“You know, we didn’t have QE (Qatar Energy) on our bingo card in February or even in May of this year,” Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin said.

EUROPE WILL NEED TO COMPETE WITH OTHER BUYERS

Cheniere said the global LNG industry continues to function under sustained supply disruption and sees near-record prices likely to continue through the winter.

The company said even markets like India have remained resilient in the face of high prices, noting LNG imports by the country had risen 21% year-to-date, and 9% year-on-year in the third quarter, despite average JKM prices that are 43% and 94% higher compared to 2025, referring to the Japan Korean Marker, the price that is used as the benchmark for Asian gas.

Cheniere has been warning Europe since February of an impending crisis and that the continent was finding ways to make life difficult for itself, said Feygin.

“Europe will need to compete more aggressively with other buyers for a smaller pool of available incremental volume,” Feygin told the earnings call.

In the third quarter, Cheniere exported 188 cargoes of LNG, up 15.3% from a year earlier.

Its LNG revenue rose 41.8% to $6.1 billion in the quarter.

Cheniere expects adjusted core profit to range from $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion in 2026, compared with its prior projection of $7.90 billion to $8.40 billion.

It posted net income of $1.17 billion for the quarter ended September 30, compared with $1.05 billion last year.

The company said it had completed the seventh and final train of its Corpus Christi Stage 3 project in Texas in August, adding more than 20% to its LNG production capacity.

Cheniere said it plans to greenlight its 6 million metric tons per annum phase 1 expansion at its Sabine Pass facility as soon as it gets the regulatory approvals which it expects by the end of the year.

The company has already secured the $3.5 billion in funding it needs to match its own $3.5 billion for the proposed expansion.

(Reporting by Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru; Editing by Nathan Crooks and David Holmes)