Brazil may re-route farm export flows amid US-China deal

By Roberto Samora

SAO PAULO, May 18 (Reuters) – A deal for China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods could prompt Brazil to exploit gaps left by U.S. shipments in other markets, as Washington focuses exports on Brazil’s top trading partner, industry experts said on Monday.

Estimates of the impact on Brazil’s farm sector from the agreement announced on Sunday by the White House could be premature, though the competitiveness of Brazil could result in the country pushing in to other markets, the experts said.  

Brazil’s agricultural exports to China reached $55.22 billion in 2025 — about one-third of the sector’s total overseas sales last year — according to government data. Soybeans accounted for $34.5 billion of that total, followed by meat at $9.82 billion.

The White House estimates additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soy at 25 million metric tons and, if they materialize, Brazil would likely redirect its own trade flows, brokerage Stag International said.

“A Chinese soybean purchase program of 25 million tons would mainly displace buyers outside China toward Brazil and other origins,” the brokerage said in a report.

According to Stag, Brazil remains structurally competitive and, with a forecast record crop of over 180 million tons in 2026, should continue to capture significant demand outside China.

Soybean trading and processing groups Anec and Abiove did not immediately respond to questions.

Ironically, Brazil could boost beef exports to the U.S. if the North American country — facing tight supply — channels more of its product to China.

“In principle, if the renewal of U.S. plant approvals (by China) is confirmed, there could be interest from the United States in recapturing part of its share in the Chinese market. Given the large shortfall in U.S. production to meet domestic demand, opportunities could emerge for other countries, such as Brazil, to expand sales to the U.S.,” said Paulo Mustefaga, CEO of industry group Abrafrigo. 

China renewed more than 400 expired export licenses for U.S. beef processors, the Chinese customs website showed on Friday, after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a summit in Beijing.

“It is worth noting that the United States, like Brazil, is also subject to a quota on beef exports under safeguard measures (by China), which should limit any expansion of U.S. sales to the Chinese market,” Mustefaga added.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora in Sao Paulo; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Matthew Lewis)